DES MOINES, Iowa — Jeb Bush’s big donors and allies are tantalized by his promise to decide “in short order” whether to run for president.

But supporters are struggling to understand what his actions mean and whether they can predict his political intentions.

Bush is scheduled to give the commencement address Monday at the University of South Carolina during his second visit in recent months to the state that’s set to host the South’s first presidential primary.

On the eve of that appearance, he said in a television interview, “I think I would be a good president” and announced plans to release an electronic book early next year, along with roughly 250,000 emails from his time as Florida’s governor.

Surely, those are signs he’s in.

Bush also is expanding his private equity business, and advisers insist he’s not courting a political staff in Iowa and New Hampshire, even as other would-be candidates assemble their 2016 campaign teams in the early voting states.

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Surely, those are signs he’s out.

About all anyone can say for certain is that, as Bush himself has said, he’s still thinking about it.

“He’s begun the journey. How long it will take him, I don’t know,” said Al Cardenas, a longtime Bush friend and former chairman of the American Conservative Union. “People are interpreting activity to conclude that he’s closer to running. I’m not of that school.

“I hope he runs, but I believe the activity is based on getting serious.”

Bush has said he expects to make a decision by the end of the month.

As the son of one president and brother of another, he has the power to transform the 2016 contest like no other Republican. He can tap into his family’s vast political network, and his campaign would attract strong support from major donors and widespread media attention.

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Bush spent much of the recent midterm campaign out of the public eye. But the address at South Carolina will be his fourth high-profile speech in recent weeks. That includes an appearance before corporate executives in Washington, where he called for his party to embrace an immigration overhaul and to focus on governing. He also said he would make the call on running for president “not that far out in the future.”

In an interview with ABC’s Miami affiliate WPLG-TV, Bush expressed confidence that he would make a fine president and said he was in the process of writing an e-book about his time as governor and that it would come out in the spring. At about the same time, he will make public about 250,000 emails from his time in office, in an effort to promote transparency and to “let people make up their mind.”

Bush said going through the material has reminded him that “if you run with big ideas and then you’re true to those ideas, and get a chance to serve and implement them and do it with passion and conviction, you can move the needle. … And that’s what we need right now in America,” he said in the interview that aired Sunday.

Slater Bayliss, a longtime Florida-based Bush aide who helps lead a political action committee founded by Bush’s sons, met with strategists in Iowa during a late November trip to his native state.

Former Iowa Republican Party Chairman Chuck Larson was among those who discussed with Bayliss the state’s political trends, policy issues and how the state might react to a Bush campaign.

“If Jeb Bush decides to run for president, I believe he will be incredibly well received by conservatives in Iowa,” Larson said.


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