There are certainly times when I write this blog for the weekend when I feel really confident about the forecast and other times when I am less sure of the outcome. For the upcoming weekend there are several pieces of the puzzle which are quite clear and others to which I still have some questions.  The biggest of these is the timing and frequency of any showers.  Presently, the best chance of rainfall is looking like Saturday, but Sunday isn’t going to be rain free.

The issue is predicting where the dividing line between the extreme heat and more seasonable warmth is going to set up.  The models we use have been fluctuating dramatically with earlier guidance suggesting Saturday would be a hot day and others cooling the region to the 70s with more widespread shower activity.  Presently it appears the cooler regime will win although it will still be muggy.

Marine air will keep the region cooler on Saturday

Marine air will keep the region cooler on Saturday

We desperately need rainfall. I’ve been touting the drought all summer as a problem and in spite of some rainfall lately it’s still a formidable drought in many areas, especially along the southern coast of Maine.  If you miss the rainfall over the next 36 hours, I think you may need to wait until next week before the next chance of rain arrives.

The pattern is clearly better for rain, but we need so much, even average rainfall won’t help, it will just prevent the drought from getting worse.

If you are going hiking or running…

Expect showers from time to time on Saturday including some tropical downpours.  It won’t be as warm as today, but it’s humid everywhere.  There will be some limited sunshine, but clouds definitely in the picture. Sunday still runs the risk of showers, but not quite as high of a risk.

If you’re going beaching and boating…

Tides are high between 8 and 9 a.m/p.m. this weekend, but I wouldn’t consider this great beach weather. It will be warm enough, even at the beach, to go swimming, but the clouds and the chance of rain might spoil it for you.  The chance of showers is lowest Sunday, but there will also be a lot of clouds.

If you’re playing soccer, softball, baseball, or golf…

Saturday’s forecast: Showers will keep fields wet and with the high humidity even if it’s not raining look for slippery grass.

Sunday’s outlook: Again humidity will be high.  The chance of showers isn’t as great so this is my pick for the weekend, but not by a wide margin.  It will turn very warm again.

Warmer air moves north for Sunday

Warmer air moves north for Sunday

If you’re gardening…

Try to keep your plants alive by watering in the morning.  Water deeply and for long periods of time.  Keep the water close to the ground if possible.  Overhead watering doesn’t do as much good.

If you’re running errands…

This is one of the few weekends of the summer where I don’t think it matters which day you do your errands.  Neither day is ideal, so do your shopping this weekend on whichever day is best for you.

If you’re going to a concert, outdoor party, or wedding…

Humidity will be high both on Saturday and Sunday. Outdoor events Saturday have the greatest risk of being spoiled by showers and possible storms.

I will be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom throughout the weekend.