Editor’s note: Lucas McNelly is an independent filmmaker and a self-described basketball data nerd behind Maine Basketball Rankings. He lives in Damariscotta and says he will next sleep in March.

Starting in early January, I start calculating Tourney Odds at Maine Basketball Rankings after each day’s games. Tourney Odds uses a random number generator and a Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. What this does is find those scenarios coaches often ask: “If we win this game and that game but lose that other game and this other team wins out, can we make the playoffs?”

Here’s a data-driven look at what’s still in play for girls basketball:

A North girls: Mt. Ararat still rolling

Teams that make it: 8

Defending state champ Mt. Ararat will go into the tournament as the top seed. Edward Little can get the No. 2 seed if it wins out — but that would require beating Mt. Ararat. Should the Red Eddies falter, Camden and Hampden will be in line to snag the two seed. They both play Brewer, but Hampden has more points on its schedule. If Bangor wins out, it could sneak into the No. 2 seed if other results broke its way.

Brunswick has a small lead on Lewiston for the No. 6 seed. Each team has a high-value game and a low-value game left. If Lewiston can win theirs, it will go in as the sixth seed — unless Brunswick beats Mt. Ararat. Brewer has a small lead over Skowhegan for the eighth and final spot. If Brewer can win one of those final games against Camden or Hampden, it can hold on to that final spot. Otherwise, it will have to hope Skowhegan loses to Bangor and Messalonskee. Messalonskee is under 1% to get in. Oxford Hills and Mt. Blue are out. 

A South girls: Can South Portland make a move?

Teams that make it: 11

Cheverus has a stronghold on the top seed, but it’s going to have to beat either Biddeford or South Portland. If the Stags lose both, South Portland will secure the top seed. Sanford is the likely No. 3 seed unless it wins out and gets help. Of course, it could lose out, which would shake things up. If Biddeford can beat Cheverus and Sanford, it can move up to the third seed, otherwise it will finish fourth. Windham will be the No. 5 seed. With a win over Windham, Thornton Academy will get the sixth seed. If not, it’ll fall to seventh or eighth. Westbrook has two games left, but almost no Heal points available, so it will have very little control over where it finishes from sixth through eighth.

Gorham has a lot of points left. It could stay at No. 8 if it loses both of its final games. It could move up to sixth or seventh. Scarborough could move up and get a home prelim if it beats South Portland and Gorham. Kennebunk will be 10th unless it can beat Sanford or Marshwood. Massabesic is currently 11th. If the Mustangs don’t win another game, they could get overtaken by the Portland-Deering victor on the final day. It could be very close. Bonny Eagle has a smidge of hope, but Noble is out. 

B North girls: Chaos reigns in region

Teams that make it: 9

This might be the Region of Death. We know the entire field, and John Bapst, which will finish 10th, might be the best team to miss the tournament in 10 years. Gardiner will very likely be the top seed (97.3%). Old Town will be No. 2 unless that 2.7% lottery ticket cashes.

Ellsworth is in third, but it does not control its destiny and very likely will be overtaken by either Presque Isle or, more likely, Maddie Provost and Lawrence. If the Bulldogs can beat Belfast and Erskine they’ll jump to third. If Ellsworth beats MDI, its floor is fourth. If Presque Isle beats Caribou, it can finish anywhere from third to fifth. Erskine can go anywhere from fourth to eighth.

If MDI can beat Ellsworth, it’ll likely get the final bye. If not, it’ll have a home prelim against Cony. John Bapst, Belfast, Nokomis, and Waterville are all out. 

B South girls: Can Oceanside hang on?

Teams that make it: 10

Oceanside is in first place, but Gray-New Gloucester will pass the Mariners if it wins its final two games. If the Patriots only win one, it’ll be close. York and Greely will battle for the third and fourth seeds. They each have two games left. York has the edge because it is favored in both games, while Greely is only favored in one. Poland has the edge, currently, for the fifth seed, but Marshwood has enough points to pass the Knights if it wins both its games. If it only wins one, it’ll go 6. If it loses both, it could fall to eighth. Freeport could move up to sixth and grab the final ticket directly to the Expo, but it’ll need to beat Gray-New Gloucester and Poland.

Yarmouth can’t get a bye, but it can clinch a prelim with a win over Cape Elizabeth. Leavitt will be in if it can beat Medomak Valley or Cony. The Hornets could also back in if they lose them both (31%, probably if Morse splits and Lake Region beats Waynflete but not Greely, which is a pretty good fallback option). Medomak is likely in if it beats Leavitt. Failing that, the Panthers could beat Gardiner on the final day. Lake Region needs to win out. Morse needs to win out and get a bunch of help. Lincoln Academy can get in if it sweeps Erskine and Winslow. Cape Elizabeth can get in if it sweeps Yarmouth and York. Fryeburg is out. 

C South girls: Dirigo can steal a final bye

Teams that make it: 10

Spruce Mountain will be the top seed and Maranacook will secure second if it beats Winthrop on Thursday. If the Ramblers prevail, Maranacook will slide to third and Wells will get the No. 2 seed. Oak Hill can clinch the No. 4 seed with a win over Spruce Mountain. The Raiders can still back into fourth, provided Winslow doesn’t beat Oceanside or Winthrop doesn’t run the table. Winthrop and Winslow are essentially a coin flip for fifth and sixth. They each still play a game in which they’ll be heavy underdogs. Dirigo has a miracle path to steal the sixth and final bye, but will probably finish seventh while Mount View will probably be the eighth seed.

Traip could get a home prelim if it wins out and gets some help and if Dirigo loses out. It’ll be close. Then it comes down to Hall-Dale, Waynflete and Mountain Valley for the final spot. Mountain Valley has the most upside. The Falcons are in if they beat Madison and Dirigo, and they’ve got a pretty good shot at the final spot if they split (84.6%). Waynflete needs to win out to have a reasonable chance. Sacopee Valley needs a miracle. Lisbon is out. 

D South girls: OOB still in mix for No. 4 seed

Teams that make it: 8

We essentially know the field here already. Mt. Abram will be the No. 1, while Buckfield will be the No. 2 seed. Carrabec will follow in third and Monmouth will probably be fourth. Old Orchard Beach could grab the No. 4 seed if it wins out and their help points work out. Madison could lock down fifth if it beats Mountain Valley and gets help. I think the Bulldogs need OOB to lose to Traip, and then No. 5 would come down to help points. I think.

Boothbay will be the No. 7 seed. North Yarmouth Academy is 99.2% to get the eighth and final seed. Richmond could pull off a miracle and sweep Buckfield and Carrabec. The Bobcats are 0.8% to get in, but they do control their own destiny. Wiscasset, Telstar and Searsport are out. 

S South: Valley sits alone at the top

Teams that make it: 8

We also know this entire field here. To no surprise, Valley will be the top seed and Forest Hills will be the No. 2 seed. Vinalhaven and Temple will follow in third and fourth, unless Pine Tree beats Vinalhaven (or Valley) or North Haven beats Forest Hills (or Vinalhaven). Pine Tree could drop to sixth with a loss. Greenville will be the No. 7 seed, while Rangeley will be eighth. Islesboro is out. 

Whew. This will all tighten as each game goes final and scenarios fall away. Everyone says tourney week is the best week, but if you’re a Heal points junkie, the last week of the regular season is just as good.