Editor’s note: Lucas McNelly is an independent filmmaker and a self-described basketball data nerd behind Maine Basketball Rankings. He lives in Damariscotta and says he will next sleep in March.

Each year, the controlled chaos of the Heal points envelopes Maine in late January and early February. Coaches and fans across the state search for clues to determine their team’s chances of making the playoffs. Heal points, of course, are used to set the playoff fields for the Maine Principals’ Association tournament.

They are difficult to calculate in one’s head, yet it’s the only system in which every game on the schedule matters.

Starting in early January, I start calculating Tourney Odds at Maine Basketball Rankings after each day’s games. Tourney Odds uses a random number generator and a Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. What this does is find those scenarios coaches often ask: “If we win this game and that game but lose that other game and this other team wins out, can we make the playoffs?”

Here’s a data-driven look at what’s still in play for boys basketball:

A North boys: The field is in focus

Teams that make it: 8

We basically know the entire field here. Camden Hills, Edward Little and Brunswick will finish one through third, respectively. Bangor and Lewiston will likely play each other in the No. 4-5 quarterfinal matchup, unless Lewiston loses to Mt. Blue and Edward Little. In that case, Mt. Blue can sneak into the fifth seed. However, Mt. Blue can drop to seventh if it loses to Lewiston and Oxford Hills. Hampden is the likely No. 7 seed, but could still climb two spots.

There’s a 0.4% chance the Broncos fall to ninth and miss the tourney. Skowhegan likely has secured the No. 8 seed. To miss the tourney, it would have to lose out and then have its help points fall apart. Brewer could steal the No. 8 seed if it beats Hampden and Camden. The Witches are at 4.2% to make the tourney. Oxford Hills and Messalonskee are technically alive, but need everything to go right. Mt. Ararat is out. 

A South boys: Windham in control

Teams that make it: 11

Windham, which is going for a historic state championship three-peat, is in line to be the top seed if it beats Deering and Thornton Academy. If the Eagles lose one of those games, Sanford can grab the top seed. If Sanford stumbles, South Portland can grab the No. 2 seed with wins over Scarborough and Cheverus. Thornton Academy doesn’t have to beat Windham to finish fourth, but it’ll help. Cheverus could grab it if it wins win out and Thornton loses.

Confused yet? Stay with me.

Cheverus has a 79.5% chance to get the fifth and final bye, but five other teams also have a shot. Scarborough, Portland, Westbrook, Bonny Eagle and Kennebunk are all IN with a wide range of outcomes. Falmouth will either grab the 11th seed or finish 12th. If the Navigators lose out, Gorham could grab the final spot with a win over Scarborough. Biddeford and Deering are each below 0.3% to make it. Noble and Massabesic are out. 

B North boys: Cony states case for top seed

Teams that make it: 9

Hermon led in Heal points entering play Monday, but Cony — which plays Leavitt in the season finale — controls its own destiny for the top seed. Why? A victory over the Hornets is worth three times as much as Hermon’s last opponent, John Bapst. If Cony loses to Leavitt, that opens the door for Hermon or perhaps Gardiner to swoop in.

The Tigers would need to beat Nokomis and Medomak Valley, and then get help. The data shows it will likely go Cony, Hermon, Gardiner for the first through third seeds. MDI, Ellsworth, and Erskine are locked in at No. 4-6, respectively. Nokomis, John Bapst and Lawrence are fighting for the final spot and they all have a ton of Heal points left on their schedules.

B South boys: Can Medomak surpass York?

Teams that make it: 10

York, the defending regional champs, are in first place, but Medomak Valley has enough points out there to surge ahead. The Panthers, should they lose out, could drop to No. 3 if Yarmouth wins out and gets help. Lake Region and Leavitt will likely finish fourth and fifth, respectively. Poland will be the No. 6 seed. Oceanside will likely finish seventh. While Cape Elizabeth is in position to get the final home preliminary game, Lincoln Academy is actually favored to grab it. Morse and Gray-New Gloucester are a coin flip for the last play-in spot with Greely hoping to play spoiler. Marshwood and Fryeburg are out. 

C South boys: Wide open at the top

Teams that make it: 10

Maranacook and Spruce Mountain are tied for the top spot, but Spruce Mountain has a pivotal extra game on its schedule. Hall-Dale also has two games left, so it’s actually favored to hop over Maranacook and finish second. Maranacook will likely fall to No. 3. Mount View, Sacopee Valley, Waynflete and Oak Hill are all clustered within three Heal points of each other and fighting for three tickets directly to Augusta.

Oak Hill and Waynflete project as a coin flip to get the final bye because their remaining Heal points are more difficult to win. Dirigo could sneak in if everything falls its way, but it’ll probably be in a play-in game, fighting with Lisbon and Wells for a home prelim. If Winslow can beat Oceanside or Lincoln Academy, it can find its way in. Traip is living on a prayer. Mountain Valley and Winthrop are out. 

D South boys: Mt. Abram locks down the 1

Teams that make it: 8

Mt. Abram has locked up the top seed. Monmouth will almost certainly follow at No. 2. Madison should slot in third. Carrabec will be fourth and Wiscasset fifth. Buckfield is sixth, but with only a game against Richmond left, Telstar and Old Orchard Beach both have plenty of opportunities to pass it. That’s almost certainly the tournament field, unless North Yarmouth Academy can beat Waynflete and get a ton of help. Searsport needs a miracle. Boothbay and Richmond are out.

S South boys: It’s Valley’s region to lose

Teams that make it: 8

All eight teams in the southern region of the new classification advance to the postseason, and the S South field is set. Valley will be the top seed while Pine Tree will be the No. 2. Forest Hills, Islesboro and Vinalhaven will go third through fifth, respectively. Temple, Rangeley and Greenville will round out the field.