A new poll of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District race found State Auditor Matt Dunlap slightly ahead of former Gov. Paul LePage — an intriguing finding given the widespread perception of the district as Republican-leaning.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Thursday afternoon had 51% of likely voters saying they would vote for Dunlap, 45% saying they would support LePage and 5% undecided. There has been virtually no other independent polling of the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a moderate Democrat, since Dunlap won a competitive Democratic primary in June. A February survey of a hypothetical matchup between LePage and Dunlap had the two virtually tied.

The poll questioned 627 2nd District voters via an online survey, and was conducted between Sept. 17-21. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.

For weeks, the Dunlap and LePage campaigns have each tried to argue that internal polling is signaling good results for their side. Election forecasters have mostly viewed the race as a “likely Republican” contest, with President Donald Trump carrying the district covering Maine’s northern half in each of his three elections.

But Trump’s approval rating has remained stuck in the 30s both in Maine and nationally. And Fox News recently shifted its projection of the 2nd District race away from LePage’s favor to a “toss-up.” The midterms look challenging nationally for the president’s party amid the ongoing Iran war and rising prices, and Democrats are projected to win back control of the House.

LePage, 77, was known for his combative, controversial demeanor while leading Maine from 2011 to 2019. He lost a 2022 gubernatorial comeback to Gov. Janet Mills by double digits. After moving to Florida, he returned to the Pine Tree State to launch his 2nd District bid last year, facing no Republican challengers in the primary.

He has shown more rhetorical restraint this campaign and has Trump’s endorsement. Still, the president’s controversial policies have put LePage and other Republicans in awkward positions at times. LePage welcomed Trump’s immigration enforcement crackdown earlier this year but said Monday that his son’s father-in-law is subject to deportation despite holding a valid work permit.

“That’s not right,” the former Waterville mayor said.

Dunlap, a 61-year-old former state representative, secretary of state and Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine leader from Old Town, is running on a fairly progressive platform while also pointing to his record as a sportsman who owns guns.

Dunlap had a net favorability rating of +5, the UNH survey found, while LePage was stuck at -14 — though more respondents to the survey said they recognized LePage’s name. For Dunlap, 20% of respondents said they didn’t know enough about him to rate him favorably or unfavorably.

Just 3% said they did not know enough about LePage.

Golden, 44, a Lewiston resident, is not seeking a fifth term after citing increasing political incivility and threats against his family in announcing last fall his decision to retire. He has frequently bucked his party on certain issues and recently endorsed U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York Republican, in his reelection bid in a battleground district.