In the June 12 primaries, Maine faces a number of open questions that could determine the shape of state politics not only for the fall, but for years to come.

Not only do both parties face crowded — and competitive — primaries in the race for the governor, but the future of ranked-choice voting is at stake in the form of a people’s veto. All of this makes for a fascinating mix on Election Day, and there will be a lot to watch on both sides of the aisle.

On the ranked-choice voting question, the people’s veto will likely prevail, as the proponents seem much more well-organized and well-funded than the opponents. The supporters have now managed to get the issue on the ballot twice, and with the people’s veto they needed more signatures and had less time to get them.

They appear to have all the heft and organizational ability of a campaign for high office by a major party candidate, while their opponents are largely a grassroots organization.

As such, they’re probably going to engage in a targeted, well-funded get-out-the-vote effort for the June people’s veto campaign. The question for all the candidates to consider is, how will these people vote in the gubernatorial primaries (if at all)?

At first glance, it might appear that this will only be an issue in the Democratic primary: their gubernatorial candidates all support ranked-choice voting (to slightly varying degrees), while all of the Republicans running for governor oppose it. Ranked-choice proponents will simply be seeking to turn out their voters, however, and outside of Augusta they’ve been able to attract some Republican support as well.

Any Republican voters they do turn out could have an outsized influence on the primary — especially if other Republican voters choose not to rank candidates at all.

Another major question in Maine’s primaries will be how much of a liberal revolt the Maine Democratic Party faces this year. In both the 2nd Congressional District primary and the gubernatorial race, the establishment candidate faces challengers mostly from his (or her) left. In reality, that’s largely a distinction without much of a difference, as the supposedly moderate candidates don’t differ on the issues all that much from their more liberal opponents.

Instead, the difference is largely a stylistic one, with the challengers playing to slightly more populist themes and railing against the establishment. In that, they have a certain commonality with the tea party wing of the Republican Party, who often campaigned as anti-establishment populists but frequently governed as more traditional conservatives, if with a little more bombast.

This election will provide a key bellwether for determining if this new, more energized, confrontational wing of the Democratic Party has any real headway.

Traditionally, Maine Democrats have a system wherein candidates for major office tend to take turns, and deference is given to long-established names. That’s why Mike Michaud didn’t face any primary opposition in 2014; why Chellie Pingree easily won her initial primary in 2008; and why nobody challenged John Baldacci in the primary in 2002.

Using that logic, Janet Mills and Jared Golden would seem to be shoo-ins. They both have traditional political resumés, with time spent in leadership positions and in the Legislature.

This year, they face a base that is eager to be confrontational with Republicans, especially after eight years with Gov. Paul LePage in office. The typical arguments — that they’re more electable and more experienced — may be less impressive to the voters than usual, especially given the election of Donald Trump to the Oval Office. More voters may be open to a less experienced, more enthusiastic candidate than they have been in the past — even if that candidate is openly opposed by the party elite.

The establishment choices will also face the challenge of dealing with ranked-choice voting. Ordinarily, when such a candidate faces a diverse, divided field, they benefit, as their opposition is unable to coalesce around a single choice.

With ranked-choice voting, that’s no longer a possibility, and it may allow one of the anti-establishment candidates to prevail.

Primaries are always unpredictable, especially in this state.

Eight years ago, few observers predicted that LePage would easily win the Republican primary. This year, between the unsettled political atmosphere and the impact of ranked-choice voting, you can amplify that unpredictability exponentially.

Indeed, the only safe prediction to make about the 2018 primary is that it’s going to be a wild ride.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:

[email protected]