More than two-thirds of Mainers don’t think Sen. Susan Collins deserves to be reelected next year, including most Republicans, according to a survey conducted last week.

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins Derek Davis/Portland Press Herald

The data released Thursday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center comes 18 months before the November 2026 election and a year before campaigns are expected to ramp up.

A spokesperson for Collins’ campaign said “it is absurd to be polling at this point in the cycle” and argued that the UNH polls, like many, have historically failed to predict Collins’ election results.

But national political insiders and observers are already eyeing Collins’ bid for a sixth term as a potentially pivotal race in the battle for control of Congress — and a very expensive one. Some are predicting that both parties could spend $400 million to $600 million on the contest, which would be by far the most expensive in Maine’s history.

Collins, the only Republican senator from New England, is seen by Democrats as vulnerable because of President Donald Trump’s election and his policies have put her in a precarious political position. Republicans want her to be more loyal to Trump, while Democrats want her to do more to fight the administration.

Frustration from both sides is clearly reflected in the poll results released Thursday.

Overall, 21% of Maine residents believe Collins deserves to be reelected, while 71% believe she does not, according to the survey.

Among Democrats, 84% believe she does not deserve another term, while 67% of independents and 57% of Republicans agree.

Overall, 12% have a favorable opinion of Collins, while 58% have an unfavorable view. The rest were undecided or unsure.

Shawn Roderick, her campaign spokesperson, said that online UNH polls, especially this far from an election, are “notoriously inaccurate and only useful for being online click bait.”

“UNH was wrong last time, and they are on their way to being wrong again,” Roderick said in a written statement.

Last time Collins ran for reelection, in 2020, polls showed her just behind Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, though Collins would go on to win by a roughly nine-point margin.

Collins, 72, is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and one of the few remaining moderate Republicans in the Senate.

The results are based on a survey of 911 Maine residents who make up part of a representative panel to track opinion trends in Maine. The latest survey was done April 17-21. The margin of sampling error for the survey is 3.2%.

The UNH Survey Center created what it calls the Pine Tree State Panel by recruiting about 2,850 randomly selected residents and then asking them to participate in periodic online surveys. The membership changes over time as people drop out and get replaced. Data from each survey is weighted according to sex, age, education and party registration to reflect the state’s population.