As the top Senate appropriator, Sen. Susan Collins was expected to be a key player in negotiations this summer over the sweeping tax and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump.

But as the final vote drew near on Tuesday, Collins was not the one being pressured by Senate leadership to support Trump’s “Big Beautiful Budget.” It was her fellow moderate Republican, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who was put through the meat grinder and ultimately voted in support of the bill, even though she admittedly doesn’t like it, after receiving concessions to lessen the impact on her home state.

Critics say that it was all part of the plan, speculating that Senate Majority Leader John Thune – and so far, Trump – gave Collins a free pass, allowing her to vote against a bill that polling suggests is deeply unpopular ahead of the 2026 midterms, when she will face voters. Murkowski, meanwhile, doesn’t face reelection until 2029.

Trump is not one to suffer disloyalty lightly. After Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., eviscerated the bill in a floor speech, Trump attacked him online and threatened to primary him. Tillis voted against the bill and announced he would not seek reelection.

Collins is the only congressional Republican from New England and the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state won by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. She is widely viewed as one of the few Republicans who can hold a statewide seat in Maine.

Democrats believe Collins is vulnerable and the race is expected to draw hundreds of millions of dollars in outside spending. And national Democrats are trying to recruit Gov. Janet Mills, who strongly opposed the bill and put her concerns in writing to the entire delegation.

Critics say that leadership knew they had the votes to pass the bill without Collins. Had they needed her, Collins would have been the only member of Maine’s delegation to support the bill and would have presented a clear contrast for Mills, should she choose to run.

In an interview with the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram on Wednesday, Collins pushed back against any suggestion that the Senate vote was orchestrated to give her a free pass.

“That is absolutely ludicrous,” Collins said, blaming “partisan Democrats” for spreading a “crazy untruth.”

“No one knew what her ultimate decision was going to be,” Collins said of Murkowski.

Collins held her cards close to her chest before the vote, refusing to say publicly which way she might vote but expressing concern about drastic cuts to Medicaid and food assistance, among other provisions.

Collins won praise from Maine’s hospitals for her “no” vote, for speaking out about the impact of Medicaid cuts and for trying to cushion the impact of taking health coverage away from an estimated 40,000 people in Maine. Those provisions in the bill are expected to push hospitals into greater financial distress but, unlike tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy, won’t take effect until after the 2026 election.

But political observers say Collins may not be able to avoid the blame for any negative consequences, given her party affiliation.

“The problem is, she is part of a team that pushed forward a measure that will be very unpopular,” said Dan Shea, political science professor at at Colby College in Waterville. “It’s her colleagues, it’s her caucus, that pushed through this bill. And there may be a good bit of guilt by association.”

COLLINS LACKS TRUMP’S EAR

A recent poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found that 58% of respondents in Maine didn’t want the bill to pass, including 94% of Democrats and 72% of independents. Less than a third wanted it to pass, which was similar with most other national polls. The online survey of 846 people was conducted from June 19-23 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

“She’s independent, but she’s also in lockstep with her Republican colleagues in a lot of moves, including leadership,” Shea said. “Her first vote if she’s reelected will be for a Republican majority leader, probably John Thune. This is the same leadership that pushed through this measure.”

Collins wasn’t a vociferous outspoken critic of the bill, as was independent Sen. Angus King, though she expressed concerns about the Medicaid cuts. She declined repeated interviews with the Press Herald leading up the bill’s passage, saying she wanted to see the final text first, which was not available until the last minute.

She proposed an amendment that would have allowed tax cuts for people making more than $25 million to expire, while doubling an emergency fund for rural hospitals to $50 million, which is still believed to be far short of what will be needed to maintain services and prevent closures. Her amendment was voted down, but the additional funding was included in the final bill, without the tax increase.

The Maine Hospital Association heaped praise on Collins in a written statement Wednesday.

“We want to particularly thank Senator Collins for her efforts on behalf of Maine hospitals,” the association said in a written statement. “It is very difficult to take a stance contrary to one’s party caucus. However, as she has done many times, when Senator Collins feels Maine will be hurt, she fights for Maine. And we can not thank her enough. The lone mitigation measure for hospitals in the reconciliation package, the relief fund, was the direct result of Senator Collins’ efforts.”

But Mark Brewer, chair of political science at the University of Maine in Orono, said Collins may have a hard time convincing voters that, as appropriations chair and a senior Republican senator with power and influence in the chamber, she did not play a pivotal role in shaping the bill.

“You would think as head of the Senate Appropriations Committee – and also a key swing vote – she would have been in a powerful position to shape this kind of legislation,” Brewer said. “But one thing we have learned about Trump so far in his second term is that those old positions of power may not matter as much as they used to.”

Only those who are close to Trump can influence his thinking, Brewer said. “In that sense, Collins didn’t have a whole lot of influence in shaping this bill. Certainly not what you would expect from a Senate appropriations chair in previous administrations, for sure,” he said.

Collins is not in Trump’s inner circle, though she did travel to Mar-a-Lago in February to discuss the budget. She has not supported any of his three campaigns for president and voted to convict him after the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the Capitol.

Trump publicly criticized Collins after The New York Times reported in 2022 that she and Sen. Mitch McConnell were recruiting “anti-Trump candidates.” Trump called Collins “absolutely atrocious” and said he could have ousted her from her Senate seat.

A month later, Trump called Collins “wacky” for leading efforts to make it harder for members of Congress to challenge election results and make it clear that the vice president only has a ceremonial role in counting electoral votes. The changes were made after Trump pressured former Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election results.

But she has also provided support at key moments, casting the deciding vote in Trump’s first term to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, which later overturned nationwide abortion protections under Roe v. Wade. And she has supported some of his more controversial cabinet appointments in his second term, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Russell Vought.

Collins told the Press Herald on Wednesday that she informed the White House “weeks ago” that the bill would need to undergo significant changes to win her support. Even then, Collins was not at the center of the action as the vote drew near.

In addition to Murkowski, Thune reportedly held late talks with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who ultimately voted against the bill because it included a $5 trillion increase in the national debt ceiling. It’s unclear if Collins had similar meetings with the majority leader in the final hours.

OPPONENTS POUNCE

Although she voted against the bill, opponents are working overtime to tie her to Trump and the bill’s passage, primarily by highlighting her procedural vote last weekend to advance the bill for a final debate and vote.

Jordan Wood, a Bristol Democrat who is mounting the most aggressive challenge to Collins, said Maine’s senior senator should have used the procedural vote to try to stop the bill, so lawmakers could start over. He described her as the decisive vote to advance the bill, even though her “no” vote on the motion would only have led to a 50-50 tie and Vice President JD Vance was prepared to cast a deciding vote in favor.

“That (procedural vote) was her opportunity to organize an opposition to make sure that, given how devastating this bill will be for our state, she could stand up and stop it if she wanted to and if she had the courage to and she didn’t,” Wood said. “People in Maine have seen this before where she is given permission because she’s not the decisive vote to vote against it. That’s what we saw again.”

A famous Maine critic of Collins had a similar take.

“As always, Susan Collins counted votes and decided she could vote no and the bill would still pass, thus saving her golden seat in the Senate,” author Stephen King said in a social media post. “She and Murkowski seem to have a pact — whose turn is it to vote no this time?”

Phillip Rench, an engineer from Waterboro who is running as an independent, also criticized Collins, questioning her influence.

“Even though she voted against this bill, she is still responsible for it,” Rench said in a written statement. “She failed to secure adequate funding for rural hospitals and now Mainers on Medicaid will face uncertainty and loss of coverage. To make matters worse, 3-4 Trillion Dollars will be added to the already 37 Trillion National Debt, of which our children will be paying interest on for the rest of their lives.”

WHAT REPUBLICANS THINK

It’s unclear how her vote will play with Republican voters, and more importantly Trump supporters, who make up an increasingly large percentage of Republicans. Collins has been greeted with mixed reactions at state party conventions, which have increasingly focused on supporting Trump.

Carmen Calabrese, a Kennebunkport resident who has announced that he’s challenging Collins for the Republican nomination, is running as a steadfast Trump supporter and urged passage of Trump’s budget bill, saying it’s “a winner for Maine” and urging Collins to “show some backbone.”

Calabrese blasted Collins in a news release after she voted against the bill.

“What’s the sense in sending a Republican Collins to DC when she votes with the Democrats?” Calabrese said in a written statement. “She has sold us out once again to the liberal media. She cares more about getting a headline than saving tipped workers money or giving relief to seniors. This obstructionist has to go.”

Despite their history and his attacks on other Republican opponents, Trump has not taken to social media to criticize Collins.

Some say that speaks volumes, especially since Trump immediately threatened to primary Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, after he eviscerated the bill in a floor speech. Tillis voted against the bill and announced that he would not seek reelection.

As of late last week, Trump had not posted anything about Collins.

That could be a reflection of Trump listening to his advisers and considering the midterms. Generally, the party that controls the White House loses seats in Congress during a midterm election, and that could be especially true with Trump, whose supporters generally turn out for him but not others.

“(Trump) knew Tillis was vulnerable,” Brewer said. “Maybe his advisers thought, ‘We could find another Republican that can run competitively in North Carolina, but maybe we can’t find another Republican who can do what Susan Collins can do in Maine.'”