Take a breath, Patriots fans. It’s finally the bye week and your team has the best record in the NFL.
Is this the plot of a Hallmark Christmas movie? Our hero moves back to his hometown to take over the family business. He’s been sour on Christmas since he was 10, when all he wanted was a Tom Brady jersey. Instead he got a Peyton Manning jersey from a father too wrapped up in work to understand his boy’s passion for the Pats. His friends in suburban Boston taunted him with jeers of “Omaha! Omaha!” Montage of our hero pelted with snowballs every day walking home from school.
Now 30 and faced with running the business he never wanted, our hero is transported back to 2004 (How? Maybe a mystical Santa Claus totem found in his father’s office? Magic eggnog? Doesn’t matter, just go with it.), where the Patriots are rolling through the league and he learns it’s not the jersey under the tree but the character of the person wearing it. When he returns to the present, his newfound joy for the holidays saves the business, and some of that holiday magic rubs off on the Patriots. Cameos by Mike Vrabel and Bob Kraft, who show up to outfit the local Pop Warner team with Pats gear and deliver poorly written one-liners.
OK, like most Hallmark holiday movies, that plot needs work. The point is, in August this kind of success for the Patriots was just as improbable as a goofy made-for-TV movie.
Any rational fan was hoping for simple improvement. Eight or nine wins, a step forward. Even the most optimistic fans thought 10 or 11 wins and playoff contention would be exceptional.
Eleven wins by the bye week? Ten wins in a row? That was a generation ago. You’re living in the past.
This entire season has been a gift. According to NFL.com, New England’s playoff probability now stands at 99%. Don’t waste any time worrying about that 1%, especially not in the bye week. Use this week to marvel at how far this team has come.
Quarterback Drake Maye has been a revelation in his second season. Working with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Vrabel unlocked his potential faster than we expected. In August, nobody was mentioning Maye as a potential MVP candidate. We were hoping for improvement. We were hoping for serviceable.
There’s been a lot of harping on the Patriots’ easy schedule. New England built its lead in the AFC East against a slate that was its reward for a 4-13 record in 2024. Thus far the Pats have played just four games against teams that enter this weekend at .500 or better (they’re 3-1 in those games, losing to Pittsburgh in Week 3).
This is how the NFL has been set up for generations. The schedule is designed for teams that make a genuine effort at improvement to be rewarded for it quickly. For example, this season’s NFC darling, the Chicago Bears, went 5-12 in 2024. The 9-3 Bears have played five games against opponents (4-1 in those games) that entered December with at least a .500 record.
Last season the Washington Commanders went 12-5 and reached the NFC championship game after a 4-13 record in 2023. More talent + a soft schedule = turnaround, and that’s how the NFL is designed.
New England has four games left, the next two against Buffalo and Baltimore, teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Patriots can clinch the division with a win over the Bills on Dec. 14. A T-shirt-and-hat game at Gillette Stadium in mid-December? You know you didn’t see that plot twist coming.
There are concerns. There are always concerns. The red zone offense needs work. A parade of field goals is enough against the Giants and Jets. It won’t be against the Bills or Ravens, and certainly won’t do in the playoffs. The health of a banged-up offensive line makes you worry about keeping Maye upright.
The NFL is unforgiving. Success can vanish like a whisper, evaporate like steam.
The 2025 season feels a little like 2001. A young quarterback leads an overachieving team. Let’s end that unfair comparison there. Whatever happens the rest of the way, enjoy it.
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