It’s been intriguing watching the gubernatorial campaign unfold on both sides. At first glance, it appears to be a sleepy affair, with a large number of candidates running around the state to establish themselves in the minds of voters.
Where the surprise lies is the tone and tenor of both party primaries so far.
On the Democratic side, not a single one of the candidates has embraced the center. Instead, they’ve all shifted into the progressive lane, with only minor variations along the way. Take their reactions to the increased presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the state this week. They all produced similar video messages denouncing it for social media. One could have taken any of their statements, assigned it to one of the other candidates, and it wouldn’t have surprised anyone.
So, the difference in the Democratic primary is mostly among factions and personalities, rather than to do with ideology or policy positions. That’s why the state of the race is so muddled, as reflected by both fundraising (to date) and the few public polls we’ve had thus far.
The most recent poll, from Pan Atlantic Research, didn’t really help to clear matters up. Rather than asking directly who they’d vote for if the election were held today, it asked respondents whether they “would likely support,” “would consider supporting,” “would not support” or “were not familiar” with a candidate.
By the “would likely support” metric, Dr. Nirav Shah was out front at 24%, but Angus King III had 43% in the “would consider supporting” category, suggesting he could get a lot of second-place votes. Troy Jackson was last in both of those categories, but he also tied with Shah for the lowest negatives. Most voters simply weren’t familiar with him.
In the Republican primary, it’s a different story. None of the GOP candidates are well known to voters, but voters seem relatively open to all of them. They all have lower negatives than any of the Democrats (Jonathan Bush had the highest number, 14%, in the “would not support” category). Bobby Charles, the former U.S. assistant secretary of state, had the best numbers overall, with more than triple the “would likely support” numbers of anyone else — but, like his opponents, most voters just aren’t very familiar with him.
Just as with the Democratic field, Republicans haven’t been notably different in policy terms. What is different on the GOP side is that the candidates, and their supporters, have been much more negative toward each other, which is disappointing to see. While Republicans may enjoy a narrow majority in Washington, they’re in the minority in Augusta, and as such should be focusing their ire toward the ruling Democrats rather than each other.
The June primary is less than six months away — and someone’s going to end up winning the Republican nomination.
While Republicans may enjoy a narrow majority in Washington, they’re in the minority in Augusta, and as such should be focusing their ire toward the ruling Democrats rather than each other.
After the primary, it’s going to take an all-hands-on-deck approach to wrest control of the Blaine House back from the Democrats. The party will have to quickly pivot and unify, shifting its focus to the Democrats. It did this well back in 2010, when former Gov. Paul LePage won the gubernatorial nomination, and it will need to do it again. The current negativity throughout the primary field will only make that harder, and if it doesn’t stop soon, it will only become worse.
So, hopefully Republican gubernatorial candidates will take a couple steps toward unity now. First and foremost, they should all restrain themselves from attacking one another. Make your case for why your vision is best for Maine, and why you’re the best candidate, but do it without criticizing your fellow Republicans quite so much. Even if that works politically for you now, it will only do you harm in the long run.
All of the Republican gubernatorial candidates should also pledge to support whomever the nominee is. If the candidates can do that, and focus on their positive vision for the state rather than attacking one another, Republicans just might have a chance this November; the Pan Atlantic poll shows hints of that. If, however, they continue their current negativity cycle, they’re setting themselves up for yet another disappointing showing in the fall.
We invite you to add your comments. We encourage a thoughtful exchange of ideas and information on this website. By joining the conversation, you are agreeing to our commenting policy and terms of use. More information is found on our FAQs. You can modify your screen name here.
Comments are managed by our staff during regular business hours Monday through Friday as well as limited hours on Saturday and Sunday. Comments held for moderation outside of those hours may take longer to approve.
Join the Conversation
Please sign into your CentralMaine.com account to participate in conversations below. If you do not have an account, you can register or subscribe. Questions? Please see our FAQs.