Matt Perrault is a New England Patriots fan. He knows that when betting on their games, logic and reasoning have to be king, while fandom and emotion need to take a seat on the bench.

He also knows that for most fans, however, that’s not what happens. Especially when that game is the Super Bowl.

“I think there’s a desire or some type of pressure that, because your team is in it, you’re supposed to bet or bet more,” said Perrault, who’s covering Super Bowl LX in San Francisco for his Bostonian Vs. The Book gambling podcast. “If you’re someone who only puts $100 down on a game, (when) it’s the Super Bowl, you might put $500.”

And when it’s the Patriots, he said, “They go crazy.”

Sunday’s Super Bowl will be the third played since Maine went live as a legal sports betting state in November 2023, and for the first time, Mainers can (legally) bet on their home team. While the game is always the biggest event in the betting landscape, experts say the state could see even more action with the Patriots in the mix.

“We definitely see there’s a bump every time this happens,” said Dustin Gouker, a gaming consultant and former writer at Legal Sports Report. “I think we could see anywhere from probably a 25% or so increase in how much betting there is on the Super Bowl just in Massachusetts, and I would assume similar anywhere in New England.”

The American Gaming Association estimates that $1.76 billion will be wagered on the Super Bowl this year. Dave Forman, the AGA’s vice president of research, said that figure would be a 27% increase from last year.

Like Gouker, Forman sees the Patriots’ participation driving up interest in Maine.

In the 2024 matchup between San Francisco and Kansas City, the latest year Maine released the data, Mainers bet about $3.5 million on the game, he said.

This year, he estimates that number will be more like $6 million — accounting for a $500,000 boost because of the home team.

“It’s going to have a big impact, for sure,” he said.

BIG DAY — OR A BIG HIT

Dave Moran, the general manager at Oddfellahs Sportsbook and Bar in Portland, said he’s seen that interest taking place already. Oddfellahs and Oxford Casino, which went live in December, are the only two in-person sports betting parlors in Maine.

“We’ve seen a large volume of bets this past week,” Moran said, “and a lot of them going for the Patriots, even though they are not favored to win the Super Bowl.”

The hometown boost has been seen before, most recently in the case of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which saw leaps in the handle — the total amount being wagered — with the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl in 2023 and ’25. Gorman said the area got a jump between 20-30% in 2023, and 40% last year.

For Maine, that could mean a big day — or a big hit — for the state’s coffers.

“I think we’re going to definitely see more bets, both dollar-wise and number of people betting,” Maine Gambling Control Board Chair Steven Silver said. “But impact-wise, it’ll be interesting to see the outcome of the game, because it could be a negative impact for the state if the Patriots win.”

The state gets 10% of sportsbook revenue, after payouts to bettors and a 0.25% federal tax. With no local interest, betting is more even for both teams. With the Patriots in the game, however, many Mainers will be putting their bets on the home team.

“In a lot of cases it’s somewhere between 50-60% on one side, and 40-50% on the other,” DraftKings sports operations director Johnny Avello said. “I would think, in (Maine), that 90% will be on the Patriots to win this football game. That’s not unusual, that’s what we normally see in a home state where everybody’s pulling for the home team.”

Avello said that Patriots fans in Maine will likely bet the money line (picking the team to win the game outright), rather than picking New England against the spread. The Patriots’ opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, are favored by 4.5 points on DraftKings.

“I think the majority of the state is going to rally, root for the team and bet on the team,” he said.

That emotional element, however, could swing the state’s picture from an earning perspective if the Patriots defeat the Seahawks. Silver said a similar dynamic occurred in New Hampshire in 2021, when Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated Kansas City.

“New Hampshire lost $3-4 million, their sportsbooks lost that amount, because there was so much money on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers,” he said. “If the sportsbooks lose money, the state’s not getting any money.”

Brett Smiley, the editorial director for InGame.com and Casino Reports and a co-founder of SportsHandle.com, said that a Patriots loss could lead to Maine’s sportsbooks getting “anywhere from 15-25% of all wagers.”

A Patriots win, though, would take a chunk out of the profits.

“It’s possible, based on past precedent, that as a whole Maine … may come out very, very slightly ahead, like in the zero to 2% range,” Smiley said.

Even with the diminished revenue, however, Smiley doesn’t anticipate a loss for the books.

“I think the state is going to come out ahead, regardless,” he said, “because of the volume of props or parlays or other typically high-margin bets. … Props have become a significant proportion of overall bets, maybe between 30% to 40% of all bets.”

BETTING PREFERENCES

Prop bets are wagers on events within the game itself, such as which team or player will be the first to score a touchdown, or over/unders on a player’s individual performances.

Perrault, the podcast host and Massachusetts native who now lives in Las Vegas but has family in Maine, said he’s excited by the possibilities in the Super Bowl.

He sees good odds on the Pats being up 3 in the first half.

“They haven’t lost a first-half money line since Week 3,” he said. “That’s been a massively under-reported story.”

Moran, the general manager at Oddfellahs, said props and exotic bets — such as the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, or whether or not a player besides the starting quarterbacks will throw a pass — draw big interest.

“Little foolish bets on there might entertain someone that’s not fully engaged into the sport altogether,” he said. “There’s a whole booklet that we have that’s available at the front desk. … There’s 30 pages of different bets you can make.”

Wednesday night was a calm before the storm, as Oddfellahs was mostly empty for the final hour and a half. Moran said that should be different Sunday.

“We have a full day of activities starting at 11 in the morning,” he said. “We expect to see a constant flow of people all the way through, right up until game time.”

Harrison C., a bartender living in Portland who declined to provide his full name, spoke while watching the Celtics game Wednesday night at Oddfellahs. He said he’ll wait until the game to make his picks.

“That’s going to be something that’s going to be either a Saturday night or day-of kind of thing,” he said.

Like Perrault, though, Harrison said he doesn’t allow his heart to interfere with his head.

“I don’t think rationally about the teams that I’m a die-hard fan of, so I tend to not bet at all. If I do, it’s a lot less,” he said. “I think the Celtics are going to go 82-0, I think the Sox are going to go 162-0, I think the Pats are going to go 17-0. … I don’t think logically about that, and I know that, so I don’t bet large sums of money.”

Bobby Jordan, a Portland tech worker, said he’s the opposite of most fans betting on their team’s games. A professed “emotional hedger,” Jordan bets against the Patriots, knowing that he’s getting a win either way: some money, or a New England victory.

“It’s almost like I’m trying to jinx myself and the Seahawks so that the Patriots win,” he said.

There’s a limit, however.

“If I do bet on the Super Bowl, I probably won’t take any bets on the Seahawks, because I definitely don’t want to see (their) player doing well,” he said.

As for betting on or against the team? Jordan said he hasn’t made up his mind.

“It’s a debated topic, because folks will say you’re not a real fan if you’re betting against your team,” he said. “I’m still mulling it over.”