When it became clear Donald Trump wanted to reinvigorate the Monroe Doctrine and pivot the United States toward a new focus on the Western Hemisphere — that, along with his ambivalent attitude toward NATO — it led many observers to presume that he was setting up a tripolar world.

That would be a world where, rather than being the lone superpower, Russia, China and the U.S. would each have separate, regional spheres of influence, while Europe would be largely left to fend for itself.

Recent events, though, have undermined that assumption, suggesting instead that Trump wants to retain global U.S. dominance — albeit in a different fashion.

First, there was the decision back in June of last year by the United States and Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear program. Over the course of 12 days, they crippled — if not completely eliminated, as Trump claimed — Iran’s nuclear program. They did so through air power alone, without any U.S. casualties; Israel’s response was largely constrained.

Russia and China stayed completely out of it, leaving Iran to fend for itself, which didn’t work out so well for them. We can debate how successful the mission was, or whether it should’ve required congressional authorization, but what isn’t in doubt is the global reaction. 

Next, let’s take a look at the U.S. raid to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and extradite him to stand trial. While that was in the Western Hemisphere — right in our backyard, in fact — Venezuela has long been closely aligned with Russia and China. Venezuela has bought weapons from them, sold them oil and happily taken their investment, all while loudly spewing anti-American propaganda and suppressing internal dissent.

The decision to launch the operation to seize Maduro wasn’t just about removing a bad guy from power. It was about arresting an indicted criminal and demonstrating to the world that reliance on Russia and China wouldn’t keep the U.S. from going after you. It showed not only that their weapons systems were no defense against ours, but that they couldn’t be counted on to intervene directly, thereby undermining their credibility globally.

All of that showed the Trump administration — and the world — that, while Russia and China might sell their friends weapons and spew rhetoric, they wouldn’t come to their direct defense. Taking action against Venezuela and Iran didn’t result in missiles flying at the direction of Beijing and China, much in the same way that the Russian invasions of Georgia and Crimea didn’t provoke a Western military response — or even a maximalist economic one. That was a mistake by the West, one that led to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022; the question is whether they’re making a similar one in reverse now.

Washington has succeeded in removing Maduro from power and killing Ali Khamenei. What it hasn’t succeeded at, as of yet, is transitioning either of those countries toward democracy or away from the Sino-Russian orbit. The new Venezuelan leadership might not quite be bosom buddies with Moscow or Beijing the same way Maduro was, but acting President Delcy Rodriguez hasn’t exactly scheduled free and fair elections, either.

Our current action against Iran is uncertain and ongoing, but the killing of Khamenei has not yet resulted in the complete collapse of the regime — even if that is the Trump administration’s ultimate goal.

What is clear is that the administration’s foreign policy has made it obvious to nations around the world that they can’t depend on Russia or China to defend them, either directly or indirectly. Their military technology simply doesn’t match up against ours in capabilities. The fact that the United States could seize Maduro and kill Khamenei shows that much. It also shows that neither is willing to start a nuclear war over anything and everything, and without that threat their only remaining option is simply bluster, since they cannot punish us economically.

What it does show is that this administration, whether for better or for worse, is willing to take actions that prior administrations — from both parties — have not. Prior presidents have considered strikes against Iran and removing Maduro from power, but Trump has actually done it — and demonstrated to Russia and China that he’s not afraid of them.

That’s a good thing, but what we don’t know is whether he’s prepared to deal with the consequences of his actions. That certainly remains an open question, and it very much will determine whether his decisions prove to be wise ones — or foolish, misguided adventures abroad.