Gas above $4 a gallon. Price hikes for plane tickets and baggage fees. Global unrest. Federal government shutdowns.

Tourism experts are watching those factors closely to understand how they might impact Maine this summer. It’s too early to say whether the high cost of travel will deter people during the state’s busiest season, they said.

“This is a very fluid situation,” said Carolann Ouellette, director of the Maine Office of Tourism. “Predictions are definitely difficult to make.”

Still, industry leaders and business owners said they see positive indicators. Ouellette is keeping a close eye on market research about traveler sentiment, and a recent national survey from research group Future Partners showed that 60% of Americans are still prioritizing travel in their household budgets.

“Anytime prices go up, it can have an impact on how people make their decisions,” said Tony Cameron, CEO of the Maine Tourism Association, a nonprofit membership organization that also runs visitor information centers around the state. “But in some ways, it might actually work out in our favor.”

Stephen Coston, who owns a dozen properties in Bar Harbor, said reservations are trending ahead of last year.

“Until gas goes above $5,” he said, “I’m not going to worry about it too much.”

RISING COSTS

The Maine Office of Tourism reported more than 6 million visits from out-of-staters from May through October last year. That number was down slightly from the previous year, but those tourists spent a little more than in 2024.

Nearly 30% of those visitors in 2025 came from New England, the report said, and another 21% came from the mid-Atlantic.

Maine is within a day’s drive of much of the East Coast, a fact that some say could help or hurt, depending on gas prices. The state targets those regions in marketing campaigns and isn’t planning to change tack just yet.

“At this point, we’re holding pretty steady to where we’ve found the campaign works best,” Ouellette said.

A gallon of regular gas averaged nearly $4.09 in Maine on Thursday, according to data aggregated by motor club AAA. On Feb. 28, when the first strikes hit Iran, a gallon of regular averaged $2.91 and diesel was $4.32. Analysts said a tentative ceasefire could ease prices over the weekend but the long-term impact is still unclear.

Some people might choose to drive, experts said, because airfare is also up. Kayak, a travel search engine, reported that the average cost of a round-trip plane ticket in the U.S. in the last week of March was $350, up from $307 in the same week last year. Some carriers, including Delta, JetBlue, Southwest and United, have raised fees for checked bags.

Advance reservations are strong at the Nonantum Resort in Kennebunkport, said general manager Tina Hewett-Gordon. She said the seasonal hotel might actually see a bump this summer as people seek destinations that don’t require boarding a plane.

“They are going to continue to vacation, but they may not continue to fly,” she said. “The cost of flights (is) so incredibly expensive, and the risk of standing in those TSA lines — that would deter me if I was a family of four.”

Tom Baran, a traffic safety education specialist at AAA, said people are unlikely to cancel spring break trips that have been planned for weeks or months. Instead, they might scale back their itineraries or spend less in other categories.

“People are readjusting their budgets while they’re on their trips,” Baran said. “For the most part, they’re following through.”

STAYCATIONING

One important market for Maine businesses? Mainers.

Some locals might choose to explore closer to home in lieu of a destination vacation. The state tourism office said residents accounted for 1.5 million trips, or 20% of all visits, last year.

Businesses have the opportunity to offer discounts for local travelers, Cameron said.

“It’s a big state, so there’s a lot of opportunities to go travel within the state to a neck of the woods where you feel like you’re getting away,” Cameron said.

Kathy Dyer, executive director of the Maine Campground Owners Association, said bookings are positive, RV dealers are reporting good sales and trade shows have been well attended.

“From what we are hearing from the entire tourism industry in Maine, the higher-end properties are doing well with reservations,” Dyer wrote in an email. “This was true for the 2025 camping season as well.”

MORE THAN MONEY

Wade Light, who owns Light Travels in Saco with his wife, said the biggest concern for his clients now isn’t high prices. They’re concerned about how global unrest could impact their safety, he said.

Light said clients aren’t canceling their trips, but they are asking questions.

“We have had a lot of people who are traveling to Europe being hesitant,” he said. “I’ve even also had people considering canceling their Aruba trips.”

Light said the agency relies on federal travel advisories and suggests that international travelers register themselves with the U.S. embassy in their destination. They also always encourage clients to buy travel insurance in case they need to change their plans.

The first quarter of 2026 was strong, he said, but clients are more hesitant now.

“People that are looking are holding off,” Light said.

Coston — whose properties in Bar Harbor include options at a range of price points, from budget-friendly motels to boutique inns — said the biggest disruption would be another government shutdown.

October is the busiest time for his properties. It’s also when the federal budget year ends. Last year, during the shutdown in October, Acadia National Park remained partially open to visitors with limited services, but some guests still canceled. Coston said a more dramatic curtailment of park operations could hurt the entire state.

If reservations continue on trend and the government stays open, he said, business should be good.

“I’ll be a happy camper,” he said.