In the first three months since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, 166,000 fewer travelers came into Maine from Canada, a decline of 26% over the same period in 2024.

If that trend — or anything close to it — continues into the late spring and summer, the state’s signature tourism season could be imperiled.

Data released this week by U.S. Customs and Border Protection suggests Canadians are making good on their threats to boycott Maine and other border states in protest of Trump’s trade policies and his continued rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state.

Fewer visitors came to Maine from Canada in April – 147,000 – than during any month since May of 2022. That total is down 35% from April 2024.

Overall, the number of travelers from Canada into all northern border states from February through April dropped by about 2.4 million, or 21%, over the same period last year.

The number of land travelers crossing into Maine and other border states doesn’t represent only tourists. Many communities along the border have shared economic and cultural identities and residents on both sides have routinely traveled across the border to shop or work or to visit friends and relatives.

But public polls and media reports in Canada suggest Canadians are actively avoiding leisure travel to the U.S.

Ben Goodman, a spokesman for Gov. Janet Mills, said the governor “remains deeply concerned about the impact of the president’s tariff policies and harmful rhetoric on our nation’s relationship with Canada. The Governor values Maine’s historic and cultural ties with Canada and wants Canadians to know that they are always welcome in Maine.”

Tariffs are part of the equation. After threatening and then postponing action twice, Trump has instituted 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada, and 10% on energy. Canada has responded with retaliatory tariffs.

The bigger factor, though, seems to be Trump’s dismissive public statements about Canada, which has long been one of the United States’ closest allies.

Polls conducted in March showed that 80% to 90% of Canadians are opposed to the idea of becoming a U.S. state, and many have suggested that Trump has unwittingly stoked a renewed sense of nationalism among Canadians.

Backlash to Trump’s attitude toward Canada also helped propel liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney to an unexpected victory last month. In a White House meeting with Trump last week, Carney said unequivocally that “Canada is not for sale.”

It’s too early to tell if visitors from other places will make up the shortfall of Canadian travelers. It’s also not yet known if tenuous economic conditions might lead to less travel across the board.

Julie Simpson, president and chief executive of the World Travel & Tourism Council, told the New York Times this week that the U.S. is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year.

“The near neighbors, Canada and Mexico, are not traveling,” she said. “There are also concerns over visas — whether they’ve got the right visa or might accidentally get arrested, which has made people quite fearful.”

The U.S. Travel Association has estimated that even a 10% drop in Canadian tourism could cost the U.S. $2.1 billion in spending and threaten 140,000 jobs.

Last month, Maine tourism officials estimated that Trump’s policies could lead to a 25% drop in tourism, and so far that number seems spot on. Some officials in local communities have heard about cancellations from Canadians.

The decrease in Canadian visitors also comes at a time when Maine is still trying to return to pre-pandemic tourist levels.

Last year, the state’s tourist count dropped 3%, from 15.27 million visitors in 2023 to 14.8 million in 2024, according to the state’s annual report. After rebounding slightly to 15.6 million visitors in 2021, tourist numbers have fallen off and failed to surpass the pre-pandemic count of 16.4 million in 2019.

Meanwhile, spending by tourists increased 2.2%, from $9 billion in 2023 to $9.2 billion last year, continuing to exceed the pre-pandemic tally of $6.5 billion in 2019, based on data provided by the Maine Office of Tourism.

Overall, about 5% of Maine’s tourism dollars come from Canadians, but the percentage is as high as 35% in places like Old Orchard Beach that have strong historical ties.

Mills and other Northeast governors have invited Canadian premiers to a summit to talk about trade and the importance of maintaining strong economic relationships despite Trump’s posturing. That hasn’t been scheduled yet.

Mills also has been vocal about encouraging Canadians to continue visiting the state. During a statewide conference on tourism in Bangor last month, she said Maine can’t afford to alienate its neighbors to the north.

Goodman, her spokesman, said she’ll continue to bring a welcoming message directly to neighboring Canadian provinces.

“She continues to engage with local businesses impacted by the president’s tariff policies – including hospitality businesses that depend on Canadian tourism – and encourages Maine people to visit Canada this year, as she also plans to do.” he said.