Memorial Day weekend marks the beginning of tourist season in Maine, a time when visitors flock to the state’s beaches, lakes and idyllic villages in search of respite in Vacationland.

Tourism has long been one of the state’s biggest industries — even though the calendar window is small and weather dependent — but this year, political and economic factors have created new layers of uncertainty.

State officials are bracing for a 25% reduction in visitors from Canada, much of it attributable to the Trump administration’s tariffs and tumultuous relationship with our northern neighbor.

Will that materialize or prove an empty threat?

What about other international travelers? Will they boycott travel to the U.S.? Will an increase in domestic travelers to Maine make up for any losses?

And what of broader economic concerns? When the economy tightens, travel is often the first place households cut back.

These questions come as Maine struggles to return to pre-pandemic tourism numbers. After rebounding in 2021 with 15.6 million visitors, the state has lost ground for three consecutive years. Fortunately, the visitors who are coming are spending more. The amount spent by tourists has increased each year since 2021, topping out at $9.2 billion last year.

Last week, at a roundtable of business owners in Kennebunk, Gov. Janet Mills said her administration plans to increase tourism marketing efforts and she reiterated the message that all visitors are welcome. She also warned that small businesses — the backbone of Maine’s economy —  “don’t have reserves to endure a major setback.”

The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram and Lewiston Sun Journal sent reporters to three tourist-heavy communities across the state last week to see how businesses are preparing for one of the more consequential seasons in recent memory.

Here’s what they learned.

•••   OLD ORCHARD BEACH   •••

By Lila Hempel-Edgers/Portland Press Herald

On a gray Tuesday afternoon in one of New England’s busiest summer tourist towns, business owners were putting the final touches on their shops and restaurants, gearing up for the weekend rush.

Jeremie Remian swept the sidewalk outside his indoor mini-golf course, pushing away a layer of dust with broad strokes. Across the street, David Shalmoni directed his parents as they mounted a fresh sign inside the window of his new burger spot. Outside Johnny Shucks Maine Lobster, boxes littered the seating area as employees unpacked inventory ahead of the seafood shack’s opening day.

“People have been waiting for us to open,” manager Anthony Pearson said. “They come by every day.”

Pearson said the streets teemed with Canadian visitors the previous weekend, a reassuring sight for business owners who had been bracing for a possible drop in tourism. Suzanne Ellis, who co-manages the restaurant with Pearson, agreed, noting that the current political climate isn’t likely to derail trips booked well before President Donald Trump returned to office.

“The younger generation isn’t too political,” said Ellis, 64, slicing through a cardboard seam with a box cutter. “They come every year. There’s no reason to stop coming due to the politicians not getting along.”

A few blocks from Old Orchard Beach’s iconic pier, Gabe Kidd stood behind the cash register at Café 64, an eatery known for its fresh cinnamon buns and strong coffee. Kidd, who recently took over the café he helped open eight years ago, said he served crowds of Canadian tourists last weekend, a group he’d worried might not show.

“I was nervous only because it was unknown,” said Kidd, 32. “And now, as we see the influx, I’m a lot less nervous.”

The turnout may have been slightly lower than the same weekend last year, Kidd said, but seeing Canadians back in town suggested the rumored boycott won’t hit as hard as some feared. Many of the town’s hotel owners frequent his café, and according to Kidd, most said they were fully booked with Canadian guests.

Two of those owners, Cindy and Bob Gurry, kicked off their 20th summer at Beach Villa with every available room booked. Cindy said about half of their guests were from Quebec, in line with the same weekend last year.

“They still came, they still celebrated their holiday,” said Cindy, 53, referring to Victoria Day. “But even the guests that stayed this weekend told me that in their media and in their country, they’re being told not to travel.”

In the months following Trump’s inauguration, the Gurrys said some of their longtime Canadian visitors canceled their stays at Beach Villa. Many were older couples, Cindy said, who felt uneasy about traveling to the U.S. amid Trump’s rhetoric. But in recent weeks, the staff has started fielding more calls from Canadians looking to book rooms.

“They’re getting a lot of mixed messages, so some of them are fearful,” she said. “I think some of the fear has subsided, and maybe they’ve heard someone has crossed and it’s gone okay.”

A similar pattern played out at the Crest Motel. Sean Nickless, who recently took over the family business his parents ran for 36 years, said he saw a wave of Canadian cancellations earlier this year. While new reservations remain limited, he said visitors from up north are still trickling in.

“I think they don’t feel as welcome in the U.S. as before,” he said, “but I’m not worried yet. Earlier in the year, I was more worried than I am now.”

Nickless said July and August are always reliably sold out, but bookings in June and September tend to rise or fall with the weather. Just down the street at The Beach House, Darryl Misiaszek agreed that rain is a more plausible explanation for the early quiet stretch than politics.

The recent dip in the Canadian dollar hasn’t helped his bookings either, said Misiaszek, who noted that several Canadians have canceled or shortened their stays because of financial strain. But Misiaszek still expects to surpass his numbers from last year. And he said it’s not unusual to see a dip in revenue the year after a presidential election.

“No matter what your party is or whoever wins, everybody panics and they save their money,” said Misiaszek, who’s managed The Beach House with his wife for eight years and plans to buy the motel in October. “And then, halfway through the season, everybody starts spending money again.”

Not everyone shares Misiaszek’s optimism. A few blocks away, Seth Phillips scraped peeling white paint from the exterior of the four-unit building he rents, remarking on what he called a “pretty rough” start to the season.

“Two years ago, it rained all of June,” said Phillips, 36. “I still had more bookings that June than I did this one.”

Phillips secures most of his guests through Airbnb and said a mix of bad weather and a weak Canadian dollar has led to a 20% slowdown in bookings compared with last year, forcing him to cut room rates for the upcoming summer months.

“Everyone has less money, less disposable income,” he said. “I don’t believe that all of a sudden people hate Trump again and everything’s bad because of him.”

Business owners also said, historically, when tourists from one region pull back, others tend to step in.

At Atlantic Beachwear, owner Amnon Ben remembered that during the height of the pandemic, when international travel was shut down, locals made up the bulk of his customers.

“The Canadians keep us busy when there’s no Americans, but I wouldn’t depend on them,” said Ben, 70. “I never did, I never will.”

Most business owners said the early summer turnout has been far better than predicted. Anna Ayotte, 34, owner of Red Door Market and Deli, saw many of her regular Canadian customers last weekend. That boost, combined with strong support from locals, has left her feeling confident about the season ahead.

“The beach isn’t going anywhere,” Ayotte said.

•••   BAR HARBOR   •••

 By John Terhune/Portland Press Herald

Recession-proof.

Not everyone in Bar Harbor’s business community is comfortable with the label. But even the skeptics admit that Maine’s most famous tourist destination is uniquely positioned to weather a stormy global economy.

“I have read and seen on the internet all these predictions of a soft domestic tourism season,” said Glenn Tucker, owner of Coastal Kayaking Tours and Acadia Bike. “In 29 years of running this business, I have learned to take with a grain of salt those predictions. Generally, I have seen whether the economy is good, bad, so-so — if the sun comes out, people come.”

And they come in droves.

Though down slightly from the 4 million guests it drew in 2021, Acadia National Park’s visitation numbers continue to sit well above their pre-pandemic benchmarks. Its combination of natural beauty and accessibility – Acadia is the only national park within easy driving distance for millions of Americans – helps it reliably attract visitors to Mount Desert Island even when shaky economic forecasts persuade vacationers to stay closer to home.

That’s been the story of 2025 so far, according to Everal Eaton, executive director of the Bar Harbor Chamber of Commerce. Following an unusually busy April, he said hotel bookings through July remain as strong as ever, even with a noticeable dip in Canadian reservations. Bookings for the second half of the season are moving slower, Eaton said, possibly because Americans are waiting to see how things shake out with the economy before they lock in their vacation plans.

But raw visitation numbers are just one way to measure the health of the island’s tourism industry. In recent years, Bar Harbor’s 5,500 full-time residents and its many mom-and-pop business owners have increasingly debated how to find the right balance between bringing more guests to town and protecting the experience of the people who are already there.

“It’s like, we have a grocery store in Bar Harbor because we have tourism and there’s enough people to support it,” Town Council chair Val Peacock said. “But try going to the grocery store here on a Saturday morning. It’s insane.”

Long-simmering tensions around overcrowding came to a head last year as the town debated raising its daily cap on disembarking cruise ship passengers. Some downtown business owners said the limit of 1,000 passengers, passed via a 2022 citizen’s initiative, threatened their livelihoods by discouraging ships from coming at all. Others argued that allowing thousands of extra people on Bar Harbor’s busy streets undermines the character of the town, making life less pleasant for both residents and visitors, who might decide not to return in the future.

“It becomes a different place when you quadruple the number of people here on a summer day,” said Jason Trollip, general manager of the Bar Harbor Inn, which regularly books 70% of its rooms for the season before it opens. “There’s always going to be this difficult balance to strike between keeping businesses operating without it becoming too much.”

The town decided in November – by a margin of just 65 votes – to keep the cruise ship cap low. That has some business owners worried, especially when coupled with the anticipated drop in Maine tourism.

Brad Jordan, owner of Maine State Kayak and E-Bike, said he’s confident Acadia will draw visitors to the area. But while those guests will almost certainly spend money on lodging and food, they may not decide to shell out for a guided kayak tour if the economy is shaky.

That uncertainty prompted Jordan to cut back the business’ daily kayak tours from 13 to nine per day. In hindsight, he said, that looks like the wrong decision, but it’s too late to change course and get more guides hired and licensed for the summer.

Julie Veilleux is preparing to have to make her own difficult decisions. For more than three decades, she has run the home goods store Window Panes alongside her husband, Greg, enjoying the many good summers and learning to adapt during the down years.

So far, Trump’s tariffs haven’t forced her to cut staffing or raise prices, she said, but her vendors are regularly telling her that costs could be higher when it’s time to restock for next season.

But even as she readies for potentially tougher times ahead, Veilleux said she’s been surprised by how strong business has been – driven, as always, by the park.

Because Acadia’s enduring appeal makes Bar Harbor’s economy so resilient, the greatest potential threat to the area may not be a drop in tourism but an attack on the park itself.

Eric Stiles, president and CEO of the nonprofit Friends of Acadia, warned that efforts to cut park staff could result in long lines, area closures, degrading trails and countless other problems that, if left unaddressed, could chip away at Acadia’s status as a premier outdoor destination.

“There’s a lot of prep work that goes in to give people this magical experience,” he said. “We inherited this. What do we want to leave as our legacy?”

•••   BELGRADE   •••

By Christopher Wheelock/Sun Journal

In this central Maine town that serves as a jumping-off point for a chain of tree-lined lakes and ponds popular with tourists, business owners aren’t necessarily expecting the summer season to be great.

But they think it’ll be good enough.

“Last year was great. This year is going to be good. It’s never bad,” said Linda Horne Schultz, a longtime real estate broker and owner of Belgrade Lakes Reservation Center. “It’s always good to see the tourists come. It’s always good to see repeat customers, and we do a lot of those. So, seasonal rentals are always good.”

Joy Charles, property manager of the Seven Lakes Inn, took a break last week from mowing grass and cleaning up at the newly remodeled historic property to remark that guests have started arriving.

It’s the first season for Seven Lakes Inn’s new owners, Lori Gobillot and her husband, Ted, who were married at her family camp on Long Pond 30 years ago and have been coming back to the area ever since. Now, they are the stewards of an inn that was built in 1843.

The property, which sits right on the water and is two doors down from Day’s Store, has evolved over the years, from an inn to a bed-and-breakfast to a whole-house vacation rental.

“We’re not completely booked,” Charles said. “(But) we’re pretty full.”

Nearby, contractors were installing new siding on the building that houses the Main Street Bake Shop and Pincurl Beauty Shop and someone else was putting in a dock down the street.

The Belgrade Lakes region has long been a draw for summer tourists, many from around New England. Its slow pace offers the perfect setting for fishing, boating or just lounging lakeside.

Local resident Angie Tarbox said it’s the kind of place where city dwellers can escape the hustle and bustle and embrace a laid-back Maine lifestyle, if only temporarily.

“Primarily the lakes,” she said, when asked what attracts people to this town of 3,200.

Schultz says the region sees visitors from as far away as Japan and as close as other parts of Maine, but most are from New England. It’s still early, she said, but some of the 40 lake properties she manages are booked solid, while others are not.

“The odd thing about this year is that I’ve had cancellations and I don’t normally have those,” she said.

Customers don’t tell her why they cancel, but she has her suspicions.

“I do think that (the economy) has a lot to do with it,” Schultz said.

Pine Island Camp, one of many overnight youth camps in the region, is getting ready to host between 70 and 80 boys this summer, according to camp director Alex Tool. Enrollment is slightly higher than last year at the legacy-driven camp, but Tool said he’s heard numbers are down at other camps in the Northeast.

Lyndee Waldbauer owns The Belle of Belgrade, an event planning business that caters to tourists and year-round residents. She plans picnics, spa days, gourmet meals, sunset boat cruises and more.

Summer is always busy, she said, and she’s not worried about this year.

“I am also able to cater to locals as an elevated experience option for something new in town,” she said.

If the economy contracts further, Waldbauer said she “won’t feel it as much.”

Tracy Lloyd owns 177 Property Solutions, a cleaning service, and said her early bookings are down, but she, too, isn’t worried. Not yet anyway.

“We are hoping last-minute bookings will happen as people realize they need to get away,” she said.

Getting away is the draw of Belgrade Lakes, and dozens of other inland bodies of water throughout Maine.

“Go to the local store and get the Italians, get the chips and just chill by the lake all day long, you know,” Tarbox said. “I mean, that’s what you look forward to, right?”

She and other locals are confident that despite the unease, this summer won’t be a bust.

“I think that next year will be crazy busy,” Schultz said reassuringly. “We’ll be back to great again. But this year we’re going to be good.”