If you love high school basketball tournament as much as I do (or a fraction as much as I do), the days leading up to it are full of anticipation and possibilities.

They are also full of questions that no doubt fans are asking.

Can my team really make a run at it? Is this the year? What are the games I really want to see? And how good is this Nolan Ames kid, really? (Answer: Very good).

Gone are the days when all the games were televised on PBS, but between the National Federation of State High School Association (regional quarterfinals), WHOU (regional semifinals and finals), and Maine Public (state title games), you can still watch all the games.

Of course, to really experience the tournament, you need to make your way to Augusta, Bangor or Portland. The crowds, student sections, the excellent play on the court, and the blowhard fan sitting 10 feet away yelling complete nonsense all contribute to the experience.

To help sort out the games, let’s summarize the contenders in each region. If you really want to nerd out, I put out a Tournament Guide that has more stats than you can handle. 

Here, we’re using Gold Ball Odds to determine the likelihood that teams can win their regions. 

A NORTH BOYS

The favorite: Camden Hills (63.8% to win the region)

Nolan Ames and friends have been the favorites since they beat Edward Little at the buzzer on opening night. The Windjammers led the region in scoring, point differential, and %Perfect, a stat that measures how dominant you are against your schedule. Edward Little (18%) and Brunswick (10.9%) have pushed the Windjammers and could play spoiler. The Eddies were third in the region in point differential (+186) against the third-hardest schedule. But after Ames hit not one, but two buzzer-beaters in Camden’s final regular season game, it’s hard to argue that this isn’t the Windjammers’ year to win their first regional final since 2011. He’ll likely add Mr. Basketball to his resume when it’s all said and done. 

A SOUTH BOYS

The favorite: Windham (47.8%)

Mr. Basketball semifinalists Tyrie James and A.J. Moody lead Windham’s three-peat quest. The Eagles feature the fifth-highest scoring team in the state at 72.9 points a game and have shown the ability to quickly erase deficits late in the year. Coach John Morgan has changed the culture at Sanford, which is sitting at 30.4% to win the region behind the second-highest scoring offense in the state. After that, South Portland has the third best odds at 15.4% and Thornton Academy, Cheverus, and Portland are all threats to make a deep run. I would keep an eye on Cheverus, which is reportedly back at full strength. The Stags pushed Windham to the limit late in the year, and have one of the top freshmen players in the state in Khaelon Watkins.

B SOUTH BOYS

The favorite: York (43.1%)

It’d be easy to just put York and Medomak Valley back in the regional final, and while a showdown between Reece MacDonald and Mason Nguyen would be a lot of fun, it’s far from an inevitability. If it happens, keep an eye on Panthers junior Kollin Donlin, who had a great game when the teams played an exhibition game at Varsity Maine’s Holiday Tournament. Lake Region is the three seed, but it has the fifth-best odds to win the region. Yarmouth has won 10 of its final 11 games after getting healthy. The Clippers will play dangerous Leavitt, which has played the hardest schedule in the region. The Hornets are also looking for their first win in the quarterfinals since 1969. 

B NORTH BOYS

The favorite: Cony (37.8%)

In this, the Year of the Freshmen, Cony is led by freshman Carter Braithwaite, who is awesome. They’ve also got Mr. Basketball semifinalist Parker Morin, Jackson Kay and the highest scoring offense in the state at 77.9 points a game. But this is one of the deepest regions in the state. Hermon has a top-10 scoring defense. Gardiner beat Cony earlier this year in a 97-90 barnburner and rallied from down 21-5 to nearly beat Medomak Valley in a controversial finish in the last game of the season. MDI and Ellsworth are two Big East schools that played an instant classic on the final day of the regular season. 

C SOUTH BOYS

The favorite: Spruce Mountain (52.5%)

The Phoenix lost their first two games by a combined five points while their football players got into basketball shape. They then ripped off 16 consecutive victories. They have the fifth stingiest defense in the state at 39.8 points a game and are third in the state in %Perfect (88.3%). Simply put, they’re very good. One of those losses came to Hall-Dale, which has the second best odds at 20.5% behind the third-best scoring offense in the region. Maranacook rounds out the three-headed monster at 16.2%, led by the dynamic duo of Jack Fontaine and Gage Mattson. The Black Bears led the region in scoring against the hardest schedule, which is always an intriguing combination. No. 5 Mount View is lurking with a 6.1% chance to run the table, which should be terrifying to anyone who remembers Mount View’s time in C North. 

D SOUTH BOYS

The favorite: Mt. Abram (29.8%)

Mt. Abram started the season 2-3 before winning 13 of its last 14 games, with the one loss coming to Spruce Mountain. Fittingly for a team named the Roadrunners, it has a top-10 scoring offense at 68.2 points a game and is third in the region in scoring differential. Still, Mt. Abram is far from an overwhelming favorite. Monmouth and Madison have strong cases that they are the best teams in the region, with odds to win it of 25.6% and 20.5%, respectively. Monmouth leads the region in point differential at +296. Madison is 12-6 against the second-hardest schedule in D South. Carrabec, Wiscasset and Buckfield are lurking, but it’ll be a tall order to get past those top-three teams.

S SOUTH BOYS

The favorite: Valley (51.9%)

Honestly, 51.9% feels low for Valley. Led by all-time leading scorer Fisher Tewksbury and dynamic point guard Harry Louis, Valley has made it to the tournament floor for the 42nd consecutive year, far and away the longest streak in the state. Valley is third in the state in scoring offense (74.3 ppg) and scoring differential (+462). Pine Tree has the second best odds at 20.5%, but it’s not entering the playoffs at full strength. When healthy, PTA has a top-10 offense. You should never count out the Forest Hills boys in the Augusta Civic Center. Sophomore Jaxson Desjardins scored his 1,000th point earlier this year and could get hot and carry the Tigers.

A NORTH GIRLS

The favorite: Mt. Ararat (57.6%)

In a weird quirk of reclassification, Mt. Ararat is attempting to defend its title from last year, but in a different region. The Eagles are in the top 10 in the state in scoring offense (61.2 ppg), scoring defense (27.8 ppg), scoring differential (+601) and %Perfect (87.4%). Led by Julianna Allen and the Jensen sisters (Jenna, Jaelyn and Josie), they can beat you in a variety of ways and will be very difficult to dethrone. There’s three teams with a reasonable chance to do pull off an upset. Hampden (13.7%) has a big in Grace LaBree, who can stay with Allen. Camden has the second-best offense in the region and a 16.9% chance to end up in the state game. Edward Little is fourth at 7.5%. After a 13-1 start, the Eddies lost 3 of their last 4 to end the regular season. 

A SOUTH GIRLS

The favorite: Cheverus (41.9%)

The top four teams in A South are all very, very good and are all ranked inside the top 5 in the Power Rankings and top 6 in the Varsity Maine poll. Kylie Lamson has made a strong case for Gatorade Player of the Year honors in leading Cheverus to the top seed. The Stags are first in the region in scoring offense and %Perfect. No. 2 Sanford has a 23.4% chance to win the region. It’s won its last eight games, all by at least 15 points. The defending state champs from South Portland are 16-2, losing twice to Cheverus by a combined eight points, and have the best scoring defense in the region. In a fun quirk, there are three 2025 regional champions in this region. The third is Biddeford, a young team that’s maybe a year away, but we all said that last year and the Tigers nearly won the whole thing in class B. 

B NORTH GIRLS

The favorite: Gardiner (36.1%)

This is the Region of Death. Seven teams in this region are ranked in the top 25 of the Power Rankings. No. 8 Erskine is 14-4. Gardiner is 17-1 with the lone loss coming on the road to Oceanside. It leads the region in the trifecta of scoring offense, defense and differential. Old Town has the second-best odds at 22.1%. Maddie Provost and third-seeded Lawrence have a 15.7% chance. Provost, who led the Kennebec Valley Athletic Conference in scoring this season with over 28 points a game, has been in a groove since returning from injury. No. 4 Presque Isle and No. 5 Hermon will play in the quarterfinals and are threats to win the entire thing, as are No. 6 MDI, No. 7 Ellsworth and that 14-win Erskine team. 

B SOUTH GIRLS

The favorites: Gray-New Gloucester (39.1%) and Oceanside (39.3%)

On the Maine Basketball Rankings Podcast, Jay Baines and I do an exercise each year called “Let’s Pick a Cinderella!” where we go through the regions and pick a team other than the favorite to win the region. In B South, we have co-favorites. Gray-New Gloucester is second in scoring offense and first in scoring defense and has won eight straight, all by at least 20 points. The Patriots are also the only team to beat Mt. Ararat. Oceanside is led by Miss Basketball semifinalist Renee Ripley and standout freshman Olivia Breen. It has won 16 straight games and 78% of its wins have been by 20 or more points. York has the next best chance. The Wildcats handed Gray-NG its only loss of the season and were third in the region in %Perfect while playing the hardest schedule. With the bye directly to Portland, Greely extended its streak of reaching the neutral floor to 30 consecutive seasons, the best among girls programs in the state (York is next with 22). 

C SOUTH GIRLS

The favorite: Spruce Mountain (42.4%)

Spruce Mountain is 17-1 and ranked first or second in Class C in, well, everything. Maranacook has the second best odds at 18.6%. The Black Bears lost three straight in early January, to Spruce twice and Cony, then won nine straight by at least 15 points. Wells has won 12 straight, including a victory over Spruce Mountain, and is second in the region in scoring differential at +417. Oak Hill, Winthrop and Winslow are all lurking, hoping to play spoiler. Winslow played the toughest schedule in the region and managed to go 10-8. 

D SOUTH GIRLS

The favorite: Mt. Abram (30.5%)

Mt. Abram has the eighth-stingiest scoring defense in the state. Only two teams have scored more than 40 points against them this year and they are unbeaten in D South. Behind the Roadrunners is Buckfield, which has a 20% chance of advancing to states. The Bucks have a top-20 scoring defense, so a regional final against Mt. Abram might be a low-scoring affair. Carrabec lost twice to Buckfield, but the second one was only by two points. Monmouth has a 12.8% chance to win the region, which might be the highest in the state for a No. 4 seed. The Mustangs played the hardest schedule in the region.

S SOUTH GIRLS

The favorite: Valley (59%)

In the preseason, Varsity Maine’s own Mike Mandell called the Valley girls the biggest favorite in the state and it’s done nothing to prove him wrong. The Cavaliers are 17-1 with the one loss coming against an equally dominant Class D school in Bangor Christian, 76-73. They hung with Class A Bangor in the preseason. They’ve out-scored opponents by 809 points, best in the state regardless of gender. Forest Hills is the No. 2 seed, but it lost to Valley by 52 and 53 points. It’s often said it’s hard to beat a team three times, but it’s less hard when you beat them by 50 each time. Vinalhaven lost to Forest Hills twice and Valley, but that was all before Christmas. The Vikings have since won 13 straight. No. 4 Temple features the fifth-best scoring defense in the state. It might get a chance to really put that to the test in a potential semifinal matchup with Valley.