Stunning weather continues today after a cold start.  Although it’s chilly this morning, it’s nothing like 1977 when folks across much of Massachusetts awoke to a snow. Worcester saw 13 inches of the white stuff. So while it was cold for a few hours this morning, bright May sunshine will quickly warm the ground and subsequently the air for a pleasant afternoon.

Surface Weather Map Tuesday

Surface Weather Map Tuesday

High pressure is going to block any wet weather from reaching Maine basically the rest of the week.  A lighter wind today will make it feel better with highs in the 60s.  It will continue to be very dry with low levels of moisture in the air.

Relative Humidity Forecast Tuesday

Relative Humidity Forecast Tuesday

Inland areas will again reach close to 70 tomorrow, but with a sea breeze the coast will be cooler.  Thursday is the warmest day of the week with many areas away from the immediate coast into the 70s. I could easily see places like Sanford, Bridgton, Fryeburg and even Sebago reaching 75 degrees. The dry conditions continue until a cold front passes the area Friday evening with the chance for some showers, but it doesn’t look like a lot of rain.

Although the first eight days of May saw at least some measurable rainfall, we are still below average for the season. The dry April really put much of the area in a precipitation deficit. It becomes more and more difficult to get out of that deficit the deeper into the spring, and eventually summer, we go.

After a front passes on Saturday, cooler air will be with us for the second part of the weekend. I expect readings back into the 50s for Sunday.

The sun is now rising well before 5:30 a.m in much of the area and setting close to 8 p.m.  The first 8 p.m sunset of the spring will occur in Portland on May 15 and we then can enjoy those late sunsets through the early part of August.

Recent Trends

The past month has been warm out west and cool in the east.  That was part of the forecast this spring.  The image below shows what temperatures have been like as compared to average over the past 30 days.

Past 30 days temperature averages

Past 30 days temperature averages

In terms of precipitation, it depends on the time frame we use as to whether your area is “dry” or “wet.”

The water season begins on October 1 and looking at the percent of average precipitation since that date we find dry conditions in the Northeast growing areas with nearly average conditions out West. My concern for the summer months is across the East where a dry spring followed by a warm dry summer could create a full-blown drought.

Percent of average moisture since October 1st 2015

Percent of average moisture since October 1st 2015

The American model is not forecasting a dry summer in the East, but other climate models are.  I’ll have a deeper look into the summer in the June entry.

Summer 2016 precipitation forecast

Summer 2016 precipitation forecast

Upcoming Winter Forecast

The El Nino of last winter is still forecast to become a La Nina this year.  The image below shows several of the past forecasts and their averages.

La Nina Forecast 2016

La Nina Forecast 2016

The final map is quite interesting.  The blue area off the coast of Peru I circled is colder than average waters forecast this fall.  That’s the La Nina. The other circle is the connection to the Northeast where it is presently forecast to be a colder than average 90-day period from November to January. Of course this is very far away and will likely change, but it’s interesting to see how it will evolve.

Early Winter 2016-2017 Temperature Forecast

Early Winter 2016-2017 Temperature Forecast