I saw a quote from a meteorologists in Maine this morning talking about how challenging the forecast is for this storm.  That is certainly an understatement.  Depending on where you get your weather information you might think a major snowstorm is coming or something more manageable.  You can be sure the higher variability between forecasters is directly proportional to the difficulties all of us are facing figuring out what’s going to happen over the next day or so.

Snow will arrive in Maine late this afternoon and during the evening. WeatherBell Analytics

There are two challenges with this storm.  The first is how far north the heaviest precipitation reaches.  The trend has been for the heaviest part of the storm to be shunted south of the mid-coast and capital district.  This means places from Augusta to Brunswick will likely be spared a major snow event.

As you get further south, closer to Portland and Sanford, the precipitation will be heavier.   In this area, where everything falls as snow, amounts will exceed 8 inches.  Some interior areas of York County and into interior New Hampshire may experience snowfall totals in the 12 to 18 inch range.  These totals will create damage to trees and power outages.

Heaviest snow will fall over interior southern Maine Dave Epstein

The other aspect of this storm is the temperature.   It will be cold enough during most of the storm for snow. However, along the coastline, enough warm air may infiltrate the area to change the snow to sleet or freezing rain.  This would cut down on snow totals.  The mix line will approach from the east and may make it a few miles inland.

Snow will be heaviest over interior areas of New Hampshire and southwest Maine. WeatherBell Analytics

Most of the precipitation will fall overnight Friday and into the first part of Saturday.  The snow and mixed precipitation will come to an end Saturday evening.

At times, snowfall rates will exceed an inch per hour.  Travel late Friday night and Saturday morning will be difficult especially over southern Maine and interior New Hampshire.

I don’t expect winds to be a major issue with the storm, also coastal flooding shouldn’t be a problem as the fetch is more from the north, rather than the east.

On Sunday, sunshine will return along with temperatures in the mid-40s.

 

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