I know many of you are not thrilled with the weather this month. It’s been a chilly, for sure.  As a matter of fact, some afternoon highs during the first 10 days of May were lower than the highs on the warmest afternoons in February.   That’s a fun statistic, absolutely meaningless meteorologically, but does give us something to chat about. 

Drought has been erased from New England over the past 6 months. NOAA

The weather over the next couple of days will be similar to what we have seen this week.  It’s when we reach Saturday that things really start to go downhill. A nor’easter in late spring isn’t common, but it isn’t that uncommon, either.  Remember, we are just leaving behind a long-term drought.  This didn’t happen in a few months; it was caused by multiple springs with lots of warm weather and without big rainstorms. Now that we have returned to a more typical pattern, late-season, cold rainstorms are more likely.

As is the case in winter, the exact track of the storm up the coastline will determine how much rain we will receive and the temperature.  A track just off the coast would keep the region on the cold side of the storm and keep temperatures under 50 on Sunday.  If the storm tracks a bit closer, some milder air may intrude on coastal areas, but this is less likely.

Possible storm track Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits Tropical Tidbits

The rain will overspread  New England from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon and night.  I expect much of the day in greater Portland to be dry, but evening plans that call for you to be outside will be dampened  by rain.

The rain could be heavy at times overnight Saturday with a gusty wind off the water.  Street flooding and some minor stream flooding is possible.  However, the storm is moving quite quickly so rainfall amounts should stay under three inches for most areas. Rivers are not exceedingly high so I am not at all concerned about major flooding issues.  Some models are forecasting over three inches of rain, but even that wouldn’t bring about significant flooding.  You should however check sump pumps and be aware of small stream flooding.  Sunday won’t be a day to take Mom out for a round of golf.

The rain will taper to showers Sunday afternoon, but the weather won’t clear up.  We will need to wait until later Monday for better weather, but really it’s Tuesday and Wednesday of next week when I think you will finally say, “Wow, the weather is really like May is supposed to be!”

Dave Epstein’s forecast can be followed on Twitter @growingwisdom

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