There’s a certain amount of unease that creeps into a meteorologist’s psyche when all the computer models agree on a storm.

It’s like two fighting siblings suddenly going silent in a room that you can’t see. Sure, maybe they are playing chess and listening to an NPR Podcast; but it’s likely much more nefarious.

I say all that to emphasize that the computer models have been locked on this nor’easter for almost a week.

All the computer models agreeing. Fishy….

So this nor’easter is going to happen, and it’s going to be big across most of the state. But there are finally some divergent points in the computer models that make me feel at home.

Let’s start with our snowfall map:

This is a more broad contour map than we’d normally draw, but I think it fits this storm because there’s plenty of moisture to go around.

The area where the computer models diverge is right along the coastline. Many models show a mix and changeover to rain, which drastically reduces totals to the tune of 3 to 4 inches.

I’m not too keen to buy that hook, line, and sinker, though, because coastal fronts are hard to shake in early March. Instead, I favor a solution that brings some mixing with sleet into the picture, and reduces totals a few inches right near the coast, but doesn’t change the overall picture that much.

So the jackpot will likely be just inland, as it often is, and the coastline will hover closer to the 10- to 11-inch mark.

The above graphic gives you an idea of some of that coastal mixing and also what consistency of snow we expect based on location.

The mountains will dig the powder, while many of us deal with heavy, wet stuff.

Much of Wednesday should be quiet and cloudy before snow moves in from southwest to northeast on Wednesday afternoon.

By late evening it’s ripping snow, at times at the rate of 2 inches an hour, with the possibility of thundersnow in spots.

Snow remains heavy through Thursday morning before tapering to lighter snow Thursday afternoon and ending Thursday night.

Clearing occurs on Friday, but don’t get too comfortable. Some more, lighter snow is possible on Saturday morning.

Thanks, March, we appreciate what you do.

@keithcarson

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