INDIANAPOLIS — Heading into the NFL’s Scouting Combine this week, the Patriots no doubt have already hatched a plan that includes Tom Brady for a 21st season, running the offense and all that entails.
They also have an alternate plan. That’s one with another quarterback in the huddle in 2020, and prioritizes the team’s needs accordingly. How different might those plans be with respect to the Patriots’ desires in the draft and free agency? On the surface, it would seem the Brady plan and the non-Brady plan are completely different animals.
Given Brady’s wish to be surrounded with more artillery on offense, that plan would place a high priority on acquiring at least one tight end opposing teams will respect as a threat, along with a stud receiver. If the GOAT stays in New England, one or both of those classify as a must. Add in a top tackle – this year’s draft class is reported to be deep with talent – or another quality offensive lineman, and that gets the ball rolling.
With an impact tight end at the top of the list, those would likely be the primary priorities if Brady opts to finish his career in a Patriots uniform. That scenario also has the Pats more limited in cap space, after the Brady chunk is taken out. So Bill Belichick is going to have to get creative.
With no Brady?
Belichick might be inclined to go a different route, especially with the money saved.
“If you lose Tom, you have a lot more money to break up, and get different pieces with,” former Patriot and ESPN analyst Rob Ninkovich said last week. “You can’t lose some of the leadership, so I think Devin (McCourty) is going to be important. But on the flip side of that, he’s an older football player, and he’s trying to have one last bite of the apple, then ride off into the sunset. So, he’s not going to, let’s say, take $5 million less to stick around, when he can make as much as he can.”
It comes down to this: Will Belichick opt to reload for another immediate run at championship No. 7, or will he hit the reset button, and blow it all up?
“That’s a great question,” said ESPN analyst Damien Woody. “They have some other free agents, and they’re an older team. Do they go into rebuild mode? I’m not sure.”
The word “rebuild” might not be in Belichick’s vocabulary. He might not be all that fond of bridge years, or going all in with a full-fledged reset. With McCourty, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins headed to free agency, Belichick might be more inclined to try and keep more than one of the defenders on that list, as opposed to letting them all go.
In other words, the priority would be to keep last season’s best NFL defense as intact as possible with the goal of keeping the Patriots competitive. So while the list might not totally change, with tight end and other offensive needs on both lists, the order of priorities would likely shift.
Addressing the quarterback position in some fashion also moves up the ladder. Whether the Pats go with Jarrett Stidham as the starter, make a trade for another veteran, or sign a free agent to basically hold the spot until the true Brady heir emerges, that becomes another high priority.
That won’t preclude Belichick from dipping into the draft, especially if he’s not sold on Stidham. Belichick could very well make a move for one of the top prospects, if he’s so compelled.
Let’s remember: there’s a school of thought that Belichick wants to prove he can win without Brady. If true, the focus now shifts to the next veteran, or the quickest possible route to getting an heir in place with the best possible team around him.
It would be interesting to see if Belichick feels Stidham is the quarterback to accomplish that goal, or if it comes down to a quarterback to be named later. In theory, rebuilding with a new quarterback means putting the “win without Brady” proposition off for a longer period of time.
Or not.
Some believe Belichick will be even more motivated to have a great season. He’ll do whatever it takes to have a better year than Brady, wherever the GOAT ends up in 2020.
There’s also Belichick’s chase of Don Shula for all-time winningest head coach. A major rebuild would make that task take a lot longer, and perhaps the Hoodie wouldn’t reach Shula before retiring.
In terms of regular-season wins, Shula sits at 328. George Halas is next at 318, followed by Belichick at 273. So the Hoodie is 55 wins shy of the regular-season total. If postseason victories are included, the Shula number expands to 347, which is the number most used for the former Dolphins coaching legend. Using that as the benchmark, Belichick closes the gap. Including his postseason wins, he’s at 304, leaving him 43 wins shy.
That’s doable in four seasons – if the Patriots maintain their standing atop the AFC East.
“The one thing I’ll always say with the Patriots is the train never stops,” said Ninkovich. “Now the train’s rolling, you’re going to see new guys coming in and they gotta buy in. No matter what, Bill is going to prepare and get the team ready. He always has a way of figuring things out.”
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