AFC

Browns (11-6) at Texans (10-7), 4:30 p.m. Saturday (NBC)
Spread: Browns by 2.
Outlook: It’s not Deshaun Watson returning to face his former team in Houston, but you won’t find many Cleveland fans complaining that it’s Joe Flacco taking snaps instead. He is 4-1, including a 36-22 Browns win in Houston fueled by 368 passing yards on Christmas Eve. So why am I picking Houston to win just three weeks later? Mainly because Rookie of the Year-in waiting C.J. Stroud missed that earlier meeting with a concussion but is back now to show why his team won the AFC South one year are going 3-13-1. The Texans’ defense will show better than it did in the first meeting, Flacco will throw a couple of picks, and Stroud will remind us all why Houston was smart to move on from Watson and draft him.
Prediction: Texans, 23-20

Dolphins (11-6) at Chiefs (11-6), 8 p.m. Saturday (Peacock)
Spread: Chiefs by 4 1/2
Outlook: The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champs, but also have seen a once-dominant offense turn to middle-of-the-pack. Miami became an “It team” with the league’s most dynamic offense, but then faded late and blew the AFC East crown. Is this an exciting matchup or a duel of disappointment? K.C. beat Miami 21-14 in November in Germany, and what’s mostly changed since then is that the Dolphins defense has lost several starters to injuries. Miami hopes offensive main-cogs Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert will be back from injury, while Tyreek Hill makes his first return to Kansas City since being traded two years ago. I lean on the champion Chiefs here because they’ve been in three of past four Super Bowls and are versed in this time of season in a way the Dolphins are not. Also, because it will be cold enough to freeze the spit before it hits the grounds (projected 2 degrees at kickoff) and Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 when the kickoff temp is south of 10.
Prediction: Chiefs, 27-20

Steelers (10-7) at Bills (11-6), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Spread: Bills by 10.
Outlook: Buffalo’s biggest concern should be overconfidence and looking past Pittsburgh after winning the AFC East title last week. These two cities are but a three-hour drive from each other but further apart in talent, especially on offense. But the one-and-done stakes and an insane home crowd should draw the A-game from Buffalo. Both teams are stout on defense and Pittsburgh’s scoring has spiked since Mason Rudolph took over at QB, but it also will be without top defender T.J. Watt. Pitt’s best upset shot is to force Josh Allen into turnovers, but the Bills have 13 wins in their past 15 home playoff games.
Prediction: Bills, 27-13

NFC

Packers (9-8) at Cowboys (12-5), 4:30 p.m. Sunday (Fox)
Spread: Cowboys by 7.
Outlook: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should be in the league MVP conversation, while top target CeeDee Lamb is having a dynamic season. The Packers’ Jordan Love has begun to make Green Bay fans say “Aaron who?” and solidify his future after a 3-6 start, with an 18-1 TD/pick ratio across the past eight games. It’s worth noting that Dallas is 1-9 in its past 10 against Green Bay and 4-12 in the past 16 playoff games. Strong edge to Dallas on both sides of the ball, though subplot: Dallas Coach Mike McCarthy was fired by Green Bay in 2018 after 13 seasons, and bitterness over that lingers, adding one more log to the Cowboys’ fire.
Prediction: Cowboys, 31-23.

Rams (10-7) at Lions (12-5), 8 p.m. Sunday, NBC
Spread: Lions by 3.
Outlook: Matthew Stafford spent most of his career (2009-2020) in Detroit. Jared Goff spent the first part of his (2016-20) in Los Angeles. The two starting QBs – both first-round draft picks – facing their longtime former teams is about a good as playoff subplots get. Also, Detroit is aiming to end a nine-game postseason losing streak and win its first playoff game in 32 years. I get why Lions are minimal home favorites, but L.A. has been hot after a 3-6 start and playing its best ball when it matters most. The Rams have been decent on the road this season (5-4), but are only 2-11 in past 13 as road ‘dogs. Still, I’m riding with the hot Rams and Stafford.
Prediction: Rams, 28-27

Eagles (11-6) at Buccaneers (9-8), 8:15 p.m. Monday (ESPN/ABC)
Spread: Eagles by 3
Outlook: It may seem odd – or even an insult – for Philly to be favored by this little against arguably the worst team in the playoffs, but this happens when you start 10-1 and stagger to the finish line. Injuries muddy up this pick, starting with QBs Jalen Hurts (dislocated finger on throwing hand) and Baker Mayfield (ankle, ribs) both expected to play but likely hampered. The Eagles’ 25.2 points allowed per game is the most of any playoff team, and Mayfield must be salivating. But Philadelphia handled the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3, and should again.
Prediction: Eagles, 24-19

First-round byes: Ravens (13-4), 49ers (12-5)
Last week: 10-6 overall, 4-12 vs. spread.
Season: 171-101, 130-133-9

 

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