This spring’s early arrival is a reminder that Maine’s climate is warming and another wildfire season is soon upon us.

Since the Great Fires of 1947 burned 220,000 acres, destroyed more than 1,000 homes and took 16 lives from Mount Desert to Kennebunkport, Maine wildfires have seldom been front-page news. Even in a droughty year like 2021, our 629 fires consumed just 373 acres.

But last May’s destructive fires next door in Nova Scotia shattered complacency. Roughly 56,000 forest acres burned around remote Lake Barrington and, more frightening, 150 homes were destroyed and 6,000 people were evacuated from a Halifax suburb. Nova Scotia’s climate and landscapes are much like Maine’s; these devastating fires offer an early warning of what will almost certainly happen here – soon.

The events in Nova Scotia were precipitated by one of the past century’s most severe spring droughts. Persistent high winds spread the fires rapidly. Historically, Nova Scotia’s – and Maine’s – normal fire season spanned late summer and autumn. The May 2023 fires were a reminder that climate change is also at work. (This spring’s fires across the mid-Atlantic states reflect the expanding fire season.

In the long sweep of history, Maine’s odds of a landscape-scale fire in any given year have been exceedingly low. Maine’s last such fire was two centuries ago, when an 1825 blaze consumed nearly a million acres of our northern forest and 2 million acres in New Brunswick. The huge fires of recent years have been to our west and, in comparison, Maine has more precipitation, damper soils and leafier (humidity-increasing) tree cover.

Maine’s climate picture is complex and uncertain, but at the simplest level, current models predict that rising temperatures, intense dry periods and high winds will generate more “fire weather” like Nova Scotia’s last year. Temperatures in the Northeast are rising faster than in most of the country, snow cover is declining, spring is arriving earlier and wind storms leave more dead wood. In sum, the Maine Climate Council projects that climate change will more than double wildfire risk by 2070-2099.

Other ecosystem stresses and human mistakes compound wildfire risk. Dead trees are prime fuel, and several species – like oak, ash and hemlock – are under stress. Northern Maine’s vast spruce-fir forest is also vulnerable to spruce budworm infestations. Budworm feasts on “overmature” balsam fir, and the dense spruce-fir thickets regenerated after last century’s clearcutting are aging. At the same time, forest fire risk is reduced by “whole tree harvesting,” removing flammable slash from stands and by quick access to fires via the logging road network.

Humans cause most wildfires: careless brush burning, a smoldering campfire, a hot catalytic converter or a downed power line. That prompts the question: Are we taking sufficient measures to prevent and limit the spread of wildfires?

Maine’s Smokey the Bear – the Maine Forest Service – is preparing. In the 10 million-acre Unorganized Territory, the MFS’ longstanding coordination with landowners is being strengthened. In the state forester’s words, “Through upgraded training, improved field communications and the reliance on an air fleet to knock down fires quickly, acreage lost to wildfires has been reduced.” And the nationwide wildfire upsurge prompted formation of a federal Wildfire Mitigation and Management Commission, sparking hope that Maine’s efforts will receive more federal support.

A 10-acre fire in town can be more destructive than across 10,000 acres in the Northern Forest. At the “wildland-urban interface,” MFS helps fire departments and homeowners prevent and contain fires. Core initiatives include controlled burns to remove flammable vegetation; “firewise” advice about clearing around homes; stricter regulation of recreational burns; and emergency help containing fires. With MFS assistance, four high-risk towns have applied for the new federal Community Wildfire Defense Grants.

An interview with Brunswick’s fire chief, Ken Brillant, confirmed that the likely impacts of climate change are well understood and that preventing and responding quickly to wildfires is a priority – a reason my hometown has had no serious grass or woodland fires in recent years. Brunswick stretches its limited firefighting resources by collaborating with neighboring towns.

The state and Maine towns are taking wildfire preparedness seriously. With wildfire risk on the rise, we will soon find out how prepared we really are.

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