Open enrollment begins for 2025 Affordable Care Act health plans on Friday, but the plans could become much more expensive for consumers next year if Congress and the incoming president don’t agree to extend pandemic-era subsidies.

The enhanced subsidies for ACA plans began in 2021 under the COVID-19 relief law, the American Rescue Plan, and were extended through 2025 with passage of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.

The ACA has always included subsidies to help consumers afford premiums and other costs since it first went into effect in 2013. But the newer, expanded subsidies – which shield enrollees from some premium costs and expanded eligibility to wealthier Americans – are set to expire next year unless Congress acts to extend them again.

Hilary Schneider, director of Maine’s Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace, said during a recent news conference that if the subsidies are allowed to expire, “thousands of Mainers will likely drop coverage because it will be too expensive.”

About 62,500 Maine people have insurance through the ACA, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates enrollment would decline 17% in 2026 if the subsidies expire. In Maine, that means 2026 enrollment would be projected to fall to about 52,000, while nationally enrollment would plunge from 22.8 million in 2025 to 18.9 million in 2026.

To sign up for a plan, with coverage that would begin in January, go to www.coverme.gov. While enrollment starts on Friday and goes through Jan. 15, the CoverME.gov website allows consumers to preview what plans will be available.

If the subsidies are not extended, premiums would increase in 2026. The amount would vary widely depending on a number of factors – such as type of plan chosen, age, income and family size – but, on average, premiums would increase by hundreds of dollars. The enhanced subsidies currently make plans $705 less expensive per year on average, according to an analysis by KFF, a health policy think tank.

While premium costs vary, many Mainers can get individual plans for about $100 to $300 per month.

Frank Wu, co-founder of Taro Health, an insurer that offers plans on Maine’s marketplace in Cumberland, York, Lincoln and Sagadahoc counties, said the subsidies expiring are a “threat to the marketplace population.”

“Most folks will experience a direct increase in out-of-pocket costs,” Wu said. “Some people will look at their premium increase and choose to go uninsured.”

The fate of the subsidies could hinge on the results of the federal election, as Republicans have generally been more hostile toward the ACA, with former President Donald Trump suggesting he would try again to repeal and replace the law that was the signature legislative achievement of the Obama administration.

Meanwhile, Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris, are typically supportive of the ACA and enhanced subsidies. A bill pending in Congress would make the enhanced subsidies permanent.

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is a notable exception among Republicans in that she joined Democrats opposing ACA repeal. Collins was one of three GOP senators to vote to save the ACA during the 2017 repeal attempts, which failed by one vote.

When asked by the Press Herald, Collins spokeswoman Annie Clark said that Collins believes Congress should examine “the appropriate level of the subsidies, and their cost.  She supports reform, but not repeal, of the ACA.” Collins voted against the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act that contained the subsidies, in addition to many other Biden administration priorities.

Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, and Democratic U.S. Reps. Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden all said they support extending the subsidies when asked this week by the Press Herald.

“Congressman Golden supported the extension of premium tax credits in the IRA because of their success in lowering health insurance costs for Mainers. He supports extending them again,” said Mario Moretto, a Golden spokesperson.

Pingree, in a statement, said that “if these credits expire, families will face unaffordable premiums, especially in rural areas where access to care is already limited.”

Schneider said many Maine households, self-employed workers and small-business owners rely on the ACA for affordable, predictable coverage.

For small-business owners, if the subsidies expire, that’s money that can’t be used to invest in their companies, and it makes it more difficult to grow their business and hire more workers. Losing the subsidies would have ripple effects throughout the economy, she said.

“When premiums eat up more of a household’s budget, that’s less money that can be spent on services, food and discretionary items,” Schneider said.