People walk by a puddle in the Cutter Street parking lot near East End Beach on Monday. Despite the recent rain, meteorologists think that Maine will stay in a dry spell and that parts of Maine will continue with drought-like conditions. Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald

Maine might soon be on the way out of a monthslong drought, but hydrologists say it’s too early to say for sure.

Nearly 13% of Maine — a strip along the southern coast and Down East — is in a state of moderate drought, and nearly two-thirds of the state was classified as “abnormally dry” as of Tuesday, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Just under a quarter of the state reported normal conditions, keeping up a dry spell that’s covered much of Maine since September, according to the Drought Monitor.

For most of 2025, about 92% of the state had been at least “abnormally dry,” while more than 38% weathered moderate drought conditions, according to the monitor.

Those numbers fell to their current levels last week, shortly before a storm dropped around an inch of rain over southern Maine early in the week. Greater Portland recorded between a half and 1 inch of rainfall by Tuesday morning, according to the National Weather Service.

Sarah Jamison, senior weather service hydrologist at the weather service office in Gray, said recent rain could provide some quick moisture to dry regions, but “short-term relief does not necessarily wipe out the level of drought impacts that we have sustained in the fall.”

“Think of today as you received your paycheck: ‘Boy, we’ve got a lot of money,'” she said. “But in the background, there’s a bunch of credit card debt.”

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal drought outlook says that the drought is expected to clear from Maine’s coastal communities, as well as much of New England, by the end of June.

New England has seen near-normal levels of precipitation so far, with more rain expected through the end of the month, forecast author Brad Pugh wrote. Cooler temperatures may also help moisture absorb into the soil, he said.

But forecast confidence was low for the Northeast, Pugh said. The outlook, which was released Thursday, will be updated at the end of the month and more closely examine April precipitation trends, he said.

“We are going to be reliant on a wet spring, some pretty decent spring showers,” Jamison said. “To even get to normal, we’ve got to hope for a fairly wet spring.”

A DRY WINTER

Part of the reason for Maine’s ongoing drought has been the cycle created by an unusually dry January, Jamison said.

Typically, Maine gets a thick layer of snow that insulates the ground. But this year, rapid oscillations between highs and lows left much of the ground bare, allowing the frost to penetrate deep into the ground. A deeper frost, in turn, prevents melting snow from being absorbed into the hard soil, leading to runoff, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center.

A woman and a dog have East End Beach to themselves in the rain on Monday. Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald

“If you get a sudden increase in temperature, it will melt that snow, but it will not be able to penetrate the ground,” Tinker said. “When you get these warm, wet systems in the middle of the winter … it just doesn’t do as much as you might think it would.”

Tinker said that oscillation is most often a problem in higher elevation regions of the country out West, but it can happen in the Northeast as well.

The ground frost was thicker this year than it has been in around a decade, Jamison said. The rapid fluctuations between above- and below-freezing temperatures created “an idealized setup for deep frost depth,” she said.

“Normally you have the snow to insulate,” Jamison said. “That floor of concrete is a lot thicker than it’s been.”

A recent warm spell also meant that the snow began melting about two weeks earlier than usual — while the deep frost was just beginning to soften — which compounded runoff issues.

“If the snow melts and runs off before the ground thaws, we are not able to capture as much of that as we would like,” she said.

Meanwhile, snow depth and the overall amount of water stored in the snowpack this winter lags typical levels.

She cautioned that, even if spring rain alleviates drought conditions in the next few weeks, there may not be enough moisture in the soil to last through the dry months of summer.

“We’re going to have to see how we are when we start to green up,” Jamison said. “That soil moisture can get depleted fairly quickly.”