Michelina Esposito stood in front of a wall of cigarette cartons at Westbrook Market, and slowly shook her head in disapproval, as the lunch break crowd filtered in.

The price per pack — right now ranging between about $5 and $15 at the store — will go up by $1.50 in Maine under a new tax increase starting in January.

Public health advocates have applauded the increase, passed by state lawmakers last month, saying it will spur more people to quit and dissuade teens and others from starting the addictive and deadly habit. Some smokers, like Esposito, feel they are being singled out.

“It feels like politicians are always targeting us smokers,” said Esposito, who smokes American Spirit cigarettes, which are about $12 per pack, and works at Westbrook Market. “When they feel like they have to tax something, it’s the go-to tax.”

Proponents, though, are celebrating what they say is the most consequential anti-smoking measure to occur in Maine in decades. The last time the cigarette tax increased in the state was 2005, when it doubled from $1 to $2 per pack.

“This is a significant victory for public health,” said Lance Boucher, assistant vice president, state public policy, eastern division, for the American Lung Association. “We are poised for success. Whenever we see an increase on the national side or the state side, we see a decline in tobacco use and an increase in revenue.”

SEVENTH HIGHEST TOBACCO TAX

Starting in January, all tobacco products in Maine will be more expensive after lawmakers approved the tax increase this June and Gov. Janet Mills signed it into law.

A pack-a-day smoker will pay about $548 more per year in tobacco taxes starting in 2026.

Taxes on cigarette packs will increase from $2 to $3.50, a 75% increase. After it goes into effect, Maine will have the seventh-highest state tobacco tax in the nation, according to the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. New York has the highest tobacco tax at $5.35 per pack.

In Maine, all tobacco products — including vapes, chewing tobacco and other products like nicotine pouches — will see a similar increase as packs of cigarettes. The tax on non-cigarette nicotine products will increase from 43% of the wholesale price to 75% of the wholesale price.

Maine’s current adult smoking rate is 14.6%, slightly above the national average of 11.6%, according to the American Lung Association. Smoking rates have declined precipitously since the 1960s, when about 40% of the U.S. adult population smoked.

Patrick Smith, 40, of Brunswick, said he smoked for about 15 years, quitting four years ago. He’s noticing that he can breathe better and run for longer without needing to stop.

Smith said “it’s kind of crazy” to think about the thousands of dollars he spent on cigarettes, but he’s not sure that a tax increase would have prevented him from starting smoking.

“I know I wouldn’t want to spend that money now,” said Smith, who works at Wild Oats bakery in Brunswick. “I hope the tax will be a disincentive for people to start smoking.”

John Cooper, who was picking up Swisher Sweets cigarillos at Westbrook Market, doesn’t believe the tax increase will make much difference.

“It’s not going to get rid of the problem,” said Cooper, of Westbrook. “People are not going to stop smoking.”

Maryanne Alhamdany, co-owner of Westbrook Market, said the price increase will hit her customers hard.

High inflation rates in recent years have driven up the price of everything and now smokers have to pay even more, she said.

“This is really going to hurt, and it’s not going to stop people from smoking,” Alhamdany said. “People are struggling.”

BUSINESS IMPACTS

Peter Brennan, executive director of the New England Convenience Store and Energy Marketers Association, said the tax increase is going to incentivize customers to travel to New Hampshire for tobacco and other items that they would have otherwise spent money on in Maine.

“Small businesses are going to bear the brunt of this tax increase,” Brennan said.

But Becky Shepherd, owner of Wild Oats bakery in Brunswick, said there’s a point that’s often missed when talking about smoking and economics. Shepherd, who has 100 employees producing baked goods, said it can slow down production when workers take frequent smoke breaks.

“It’s very stressful on the rest of the team, as everyone has to accommodate the smokers,” said Shepherd, who eventually had to ban smoke breaks at the bakery.

Now, she said, each employee works four hours and then takes a 30-minute break.

Ed Miller, the former Maine American Lung Association executive director, said that based on past experience in Maine and other states, it’s not true that people will flock to New Hampshire to purchase tobacco.

“There is nothing more effective at preventing youth from starting smoking, and continuing to smoke, and motivating people to quit, than increasing the price of cigarettes,” Martin said.

And the public health benefits are undeniable, Martin said. Fewer smokers leads to lower cancer rates and reduces the burden of a host of other respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD.

Alisa Morton, a spokesperson for the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency expects a massive increase in calls next year to the “QuitLink,” a free service that connects people to programs that help them quit smoking.

In 2005, call volumes to a similar program increased by 97% after a cigarette tax increase went into effect in Maine that year.

“We expect a similar increase due to the new tax in January 2026. January is often our busiest month, and we are ready,” Morton said.

SALES FALL

Since 2008, all 18 of the states that have increased their tobacco taxes have seen pack sales fall in the year after the tax went into effect, according to an aggregation of state data by the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

Pack sales declined by 14.7% in Rhode Island in 2010, the lowest decrease among the 18 states, and in Colorado, pack sales dropped 47.5% in 2021, the largest decline.

Tobacco tax revenues increased in all of the same 18 states, usually by about 30%-50%, although some states saw tax revenues jump more than 100% after imposing new taxes.

But according to the Tax Foundation, a conservative think tank, high-tax states also see customers buying tobacco products across state lines, or on illegal black markets or quasi-legal “gray” markets. The foundation estimates that in New York, with its highest-in-the-nation tax of $5.35 per pack, 54.3% of cigarette consumption was tied to avoiding the New York state taxes.

Meanwhile, youth smoking of combustible cigarettes in Maine is low at 5.5%, but vaping of nicotine products continues to be a problem. While 16% of Maine high school students vaped in 2023, that’s a drop from a peak of 29% in 2019, according to the Maine Integrated Youth Health Survey.

Matt Wellington, associate director of the Maine Public Health Association, said higher taxes will likely have the greatest impact on youth nicotine use, as teens are the group most sensitive to fluctuations in price.

“The more we can set young people on the right path, and set them up for success,” Wellington said, “the better off the state will be.”