All the talk about Graham Platner’s Nazi tattoo and Reddit ramblings has overshadowed some fundamental elements of this year’s Maine Senate race.

The most crucial of them? This is the first time since 2002 that Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is running for office while the president hails from her own party.

Why is that so important? Since Abraham Lincoln took office in 1861, there have been 41 midterm elections, congressional races during non-presidential election years. In 37 of those races, the president’s party has lost seats on Capitol Hill.

In midterm races since 1922, the president’s party has given up an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. These numbers give Democrats hope for taking control of both houses of Congress this time around.

About 60 incumbent House members, most of them Republicans, aren’t seeking reelection; that’s a solid indication that they see the writing on the wall.

As the 2020 race proved, Collins has shown she can win even if her party falters. 

But there is reason to think that this year’s midterms — which, like all the midterm elections before them, amount to a referendum on the sitting president — will be particularly bad for Republicans. That’s mostly because President Trump is especially unpopular of late, as every serious poll indicates.

Collins occasionally expresses concern about something Trump does, but in today’s polarized political environment, she is clearly on his side, voting for the bulk of his nominees and going along with his policies. If voters decide to punish Trump at the polls, which seems ever more likely, Collins will face their wrath.

That same distaste for Trump and the higher gas prices created by his war against Iran is likely to undercut support for former Gov. Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd District House race as well. LePage, after all, used to brag about being “Trump before Trump.”

One possible saving grace for both Collins and LePage is the reality that the Democrats aren’t in great shape right now, either.

Fewer than a third of Americans have a favorable view of either party and one in four hate both parties.

But the Republicans are the ones in power, holding the White House, the Senate, the House and, less directly, the Supreme Court. So people who are unhappy are almost inevitably going to take it out on the GOP.

The voting in the many special elections held since Trump’s victory in 2024 show the unmistakable trend. Democrats made big gains in all of them.

Any distaste for Democrats gives Platner an edge on Gov. Janet Mills, the other major contender for the Democrats in the June 9 primary, and the candidate who has greater support from the party establishment. After all, Platner blasts the Democrats as much as any Republican does.

The 41-year-old oyster farmer who served combat tours as a U.S. Marine also stands to benefit from his early and passionate opposition to overseas wars. 

Polls show that nearly every group of Americans questions Trump’s constantly shifting and generally perplexing policy in the Middle East.

The only people who support the war are MAGA diehards — and Collins, too, since she’s done nothing to rein in our rogue president so far.

I’ve been pretty skeptical of Platner and uncertain about his chances of defeating Collins. I’m realizing now he may well be Maine’s next senator.