Greg Bates lives in Monroe.

What if President Trump succeeds in ending the war with Iran, lowering the price of oil and signing an agreement over Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Going into the midterms, Republican Party claims of standing tall could become an electoral weapon of mass destruction, vanquishing the Democratic Party, including in Maine.

Trump has the Democrats right where he wants us. We are rightly angry at his backing of Israel’s genocide, incredulous that a candidate who campaigned on avoiding “stupid wars” attacked Iran while negotiating with it, and view his attacks on the Pope and posting images of himself as Jesus to be signals of cognitive decline.

Conversely, Trump is gambling that success will outweigh distaste over his bully tactics.

Democrats act as if our chances of victory this fall rise the more unhinged Trump acts. But our track record in this regard is an utter failure. First, we just knew, back in 2015, that nobody spouting his xenophobia and other hatred could win the Republican nomination. Then we knew he couldn’t win against Hillary Clinton.

Later, it was obvious he couldn’t come back from losing in 2020, being impeached twice and convicted 34 times. Today, we know he just can’t rally in the midterms, given his rock bottom popularity numbers and his stupid war.

Are we about to be wrong — again? If Trump’s gamble with Iran succeeds, his vision will be clear to all: grab as much as he can for himself, his allies and for the U.S., proclaiming that he has made America great again.

Democrats will argue, correctly in my view, that no he hasn’t. But to the extent our dance of anger distracts us from putting out a vision for where we want to take the country and how we will deliver on what voters want economically, we risk losing to the party that has a vision, even though we see it as dystopian.

Worse, if Republicans win the midterms, Democrats may well express such disgust with those who elected Trump’s candidates that we will drive voters further into his arms. It’s not hard to imagine that the combination of victory with Iran, rising poll numbers and a win in the midterms could set the stage for his most audacious move yet: a run for a third term.

If Trump declares he’s running in 2028, he will further goose Democrats to respond yet again with moralistic finger-wagging: he can’t do that! Every time we react, he is effectively focusing us on resistance and “saving democracy,” enticing us to abandon advocacy for economic solutions that could forge a new common ground between Democrats, independents and many Republicans.

Resistance is crucial, but without a vision, the party will perish.

Some Democratic candidates get it, notably Maine’s Graham Platner. His towering standing over his primary challenger Janet Mills may be less about his progressive politics and more about having a clear economic vision, while Mills focused, at least until recently, on standing up to Trump and electability.

It’s tempting to remain comfortably oblivious; how could such a quick Republican turnaround before the midterms be possible? But we would do well to take heed from Maine’s next-door neighbor, Canada. In 2024, Liberal Party Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was so unpopular that the Conservatives, by relentlessly hammering away on economic issues, built a 20-point lead in the polls as the election neared. The Liberals were doomed.

Then Trudeau resigned and Trump threatened to annex Canada. Mark Carney campaigned on what Canadians suddenly wanted most: making Canada strong again. The Conservatives, stuck on repeating their previously winning economic message that was now ignored by voters, watched their lead evaporate. In the stunning election, Carney secured a minority government, and later snagged majority control.

When a party is so resolutely confident in its righteousness that it fails to promise what voters are looking for, devastating change can be swift.