5 min read

BREMEN — Hannah Pingree had just finished telling attendees at a small house party about her life story, her experience and the reasons why she’s running for governor when she opened the discussion up for questions.

Her audience, crowded on a back deck on a chilly April evening, took a beat.

“It seems to me like the Senate race has pulled a lot of oxygen out of the governor’s race,” one man said. “Is that a good thing for you, or a bad thing? What do you think of it?”

Pingree responded as optimistically as possible.

“The U.S. Senate race is very sexy,” she said. “It’s gotten a lot of headlines and national news. I think that is still playing out, but I do find people are starting to pay attention (to the governor’s race), so that’s a good thing.”

Pingree’s words were more prescient than she could have known.

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Two days later, Maine’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate ended in a blaze of national coverage when Gov. Janet Mills announced she would suspend her campaign, essentially handing the nomination to political newcomer and Sullivan oyster farmer Graham Platner. Platner is now almost certain to take on Republican incumbent Susan Collins in November.

With little intrigue left in the Senate primary, Maine’s candidates for governor find themselves in a place they didn’t expect to be just days ago: at the top of the June 9 primary ballot.

“We know it’s going to be Collins-Platner, so I think for a lot of people, they’ll put a pause on (thinking about the Senate race),” said Mark Brewer, chair of the political science department at the University of Maine. “They’ll shift their attention, and the next highest profile thing on the agenda is the gubernatorial primaries.”

It’s not clear how the race for governor’s newfound prominence will affect the contest. Both primaries are crowded, with five Democrats and seven Republicans running to succeed Mills. Who voters pick second or third on their ranked-choice ballot is likely to determine the outcome given the lack of front-runners on either side.

But Mills’ announcement could impact voter turnout. And Platner’s candidacy as the Democratic nominee for Senate could also shake up the dynamics in the governor’s race, with contestants from both parties trying to tie themselves or their opponents to his populist ideas.

TURNOUT, DOWN TICKET IMPACTS

The high-profile match-up between Mills and Platner had been expected to boost this year’s turnout in the primaries, especially among young people.

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With the news that Mills dropped out, Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College, said he expects this year’s turnout in June to return to that of a normal cycle. In the last contested gubernatorial primaries, in 2018, about 40% of registered Democratic voters turned out and about 37% of Republicans.

It’s likely that fewer young people, many of whom were excited by Platner, will turn out to vote in the primary now that he doesn’t need the votes, Shea said.

It’s unclear, though, if that will help or hurt any specific candidate in the governor’s race.

“I don’t think any of them have made that same concerted play for young voters,” Shea said. “Young voters don’t seem to be flocking behind any one of them in particular.”

The Maine primary electorate skews older. To reach voters, candidates have been running ads on social media and television and holding in-person events like town halls and the house party that the Pingree campaign hosted.

The exposure could change the Republican race, too. While all of the Democrats running are recognizable to plugged-in primary voters, many of the GOP contestants aren’t. Bobby Charles, a lawyer and consultant, has led most early polling. But Brewer, from the University of Maine, said the turn of events in the Senate race will likely lead to more media coverage of the governor’s race, potentially giving candidates a boost and helping shape voters’ opinions.

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Plus, some groups that had planned to spend heavily on the Senate race could throw some of their money to gubernatorial candidates, he said.

DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS REACT TO PLATNER

At their first televised debate before the primary on Thursday, some of the Democratic candidates seemed to be going out of their way to mention connections to Platner. Jackson noted that he was the only candidate to endorse Platner prior to Mills dropping out. And Bellows referenced their appearance together at a town hall hosted by the Maine People’s Alliance.

But whether any of the Democrats will do more to take up Platner’s message is to be determined.

Historically, Maine voters have favored centrist candidates like Collins and Mills for statewide office. The Democratic primary has been a polite affair so far, with candidates largely proposing piecemeal solutions to the state’s problems — not the populist, anti-establishment messaging offered by Platner. (Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson has aligned himself most closely with Platner, running on Medicare for All and touting his endorsement from progressive U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.)

“Will the (Democrats’) gubernatorial candidate fall in line with that same sort of populist anger that’s driving Platner?” Shea said. “Or will he or she back off and say when it comes to state government, we need more of a centrist and moderate?”

Until Mills’ announcement, most of the Democrats running for governor hadn’t weighed in on Maine’s Senate race.

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But with Platner now firmly the Democrats’ pick in the highest-profile race of the year, he’s certain to become a talking point down the stretch of the gubernatorial primary.

“I love it when the Democrats drive themselves even further to the crazy left,” Republican candidate Jonathan Bush wrote on Facebook after Mills’ announcement. “Graham Platner would be a disaster for Maine.”

Mills’ legacy will also be a major topic of discussion.

On Thursday, several of the Democratic candidates praised Mills’ record while saying they would work with Platner to defeat Collins.

Republicans, meanwhile, pointed to Mills’ decision as an example of failed leadership and the need for change in Augusta.

Charles sought to link his Democratic opponents to Mills.

“They all share her record of failure and corruption,” his campaign posted on social media.

Rachel covers state government and politics for the Portland Press Herald. It’s her third beat at the paper after stints covering City Hall and education. Prior to her arrival at the Press Herald in...

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