I’m not surprised by the pessimism in finding a job nowadays (“Older Americans say it’s a good time to find a job. Younger people disagree,” May 12).
Normally, the percentage of unemployed people unemployed for less than five weeks falls five weeks after a recession. This rate then gradually rises again; better times allow for more people to find a job within that five-week window.
By converse, the percentage of unemployed people unemployed for more than 27 weeks rises 27 weeks after a recession. This rate gradually falls; fewer people stay unemployed long enough to qualify for this window, and those unfortunate enough to be unemployed for so long gradually find work.
Since early 2023, something unique has happened to these metrics: the percentage of people unemployed who have been unemployed for less than five weeks has fallen, while the percentage of unemployed people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks has risen. This is the first time we’ve seen a phenomenon like this since we started keeping track of these statistics.
This shift in employment lengths is a worrying development. Escaping unemployment within a reasonable timeframe is becoming harder and harder. As young people generally have higher unemployment rates in general, they get a front-row seat to this never-before-seen flavor of uniquely unenviable unemployment.
Erik Svetlichny
Cape Elizabeth
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