Yet another poll is out, showing U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner at 49% and Susan Collins at 47%, a repeat of the results of an earlier poll in June. However, reporters here and elsewhere constantly suggest that it’s Platner’s candidacy that’s in trouble.
Why? We’re endlessly reminded that in 2020, polls showed Sara Gideon ahead but that Collins beat her by “a substantial margin.”
Let’s look at that. Collins won a four-way race without going to instant runoff because she got 50.9% of the vote. Gideon received 42.4%. The remaining votes were scattered among the other candidates, with progressive Lisa Savage taking 5%, representing voters who were uninspired by Gideon’s bland, centrist message. So Collins won the race by barely two points, the margin by which Platner is leading her today.
It looks like it’s Collins, with her long history of unpopular votes and confirmations, who could be in trouble.
Renee Cote
Auburn
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