A direct confrontation between Gov. Janet Mills and President Donald Trump was not an item I had on my political bingo card for 2025 — or, really, ever — and here we are.

There were a few reasons to think that this confrontation wouldn’t occur, mainly because, until last week, it seemed as if Trump didn’t much know who Mills was, nor did he care. Indeed, last year Trump referred to Mills as a man in a call with supporters. Unlike in 2016 and 2020, he never did an actual campaign stop in Maine. During his first term as president, he never had much reason to interact with her, either. On his one official visit to the state, he was instead accompanied by former Gov. Paul LePage.

When Trump was sworn in as president for the second time, she wasn’t one of the Democratic governors who immediately vowed to resist him at every turn. That was probably politically wise of her, especially if she really is considering running for Senate against Sen. Susan Collins in 2026. While he’s never won the state, Trump has received an Electoral College vote from the 2nd District, so Mills, just like Rep. Jared Golden, doesn’t want to completely alienate all of his supporters.

Yet, here we are. What to make of this fight between the White House and the Blaine House over trans athletes in high school sports, a fairly niche policy area that receives outsized attention? While it’s certainly important to those whom it directly affects, it’s not to most Mainers. That’s not simply my judgment, either, but one reflected in polls.

Even the broader issue of LGBTQ rights doesn’t get in the top five issues in polls. The voting public in Maine is, rightly, more concerned about economic issues: cost of living, housing, taxes and inflation, for instance — as am I. I’ve never voted based on any social issues, let alone this one; my views are all over the map in that area.

Still, even if it’s not important to the public as a whole, it’s an important issue to both parties’ ideological base. For Trump, going after Mills on this keeps his voters engaged politically, both in Maine and nationally. It also distracts them from other things he’s done with which they may not agree — like threatening Canada with tariffs.

For Mills, even if she might not have sought it out, this confrontation will help solidify her position with the liberal base, but that’s probably not something she really needed to worry about very much. In 2022, she did better nearly everywhere than Kamala Harris did in 2024, showing that she has strong standing with voters across the ideological spectrum.

However, it could potentially have a very real downside for her, both politically and in doing her job as governor. While she’s busy making national headlines, back home she’s dealing with fraught negotiations over both the supplemental budget and the biennial budget. She’s proposed a mix of spending cuts and tax increases to deal with the budget shortfall, an approach that is pleasing exactly nobody so far. Picking fights with the White House over this or any other issue isn’t going to endear her to Republicans in Augusta.

And this is not just a purely political issue — it’s a fiscal one.

If the Trump administration cuts off federal education funding to Maine, that would immediately blow a massive hole in the state budget, to the tune of $250 million. If he tried to cut off all federal funding to Maine in response, that would be calamitous. Should he go forward with either step, the state would obviously fight it in the courts, but that can take quite some time — even with issues that require expeditious rulings.

While that fight is going on, the Legislature will still be attempting to enact a biennial budget, and that was already going to be a challenge. Without knowing the outcome of a potential court battle, how could it possibly make any assumptions about federal funding?

For Trump, this is a relatively minor skirmish that will serve as an example of his tenacity to his base and possibly set a legal precedent for other Democratic governors who challenge him. For Mills, though, and for the state of Maine, it’s a monumental and perilous moment, one that could reverberate.