Politicians, economists and executives agree China isn’t playing fair on trade. But there’s a lot of disagreement about whether President Trump’s hefty tariffs are the right weapon for fighting back. American farmers and Walmart shoppers are likely to feel pain in this fight, and a lot of them voted for Trump.

There are two ways Americans are highly likely to get hurt in a U.S.-China trade spat. First, prices on a lot of items will almost certainly rise and second, China is going to hit back with tariffs on American products.

Top retailers from Walmart to Apple have sent letters to President Trump urging him not to impose tariffs because it would ‘punish American working families with higher prices.’

In many U.S. stores, “Made in China” labels and stamps are on tons of T-shirts, shoes, plastic Easter eggs and water bottles, among other goods. Tariffs are basically taxes that mean Americans will pay more when they shop.

That’s especially true for low-income families who spend a higher share of their paycheck on goods, and often buy the cheapest products, families that Trump often thinks of as his base.

“Lots of stuff we import from China is for the Walmart shopper,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “If you start to increase the price of clothing, sheets, etc., lower-income households would feel it more.”

Top retailers from Walmart to Apple have sent letters to Trump urging him not to do this because it would worsen inequality and “punish American working families with higher prices.” The Tax Foundation pointed out that Trump’s tariffs on China would cancel out about 20 percent of the benefits of the recent Republican tax cuts.

The other knock is expected to come when China fights back. Senior Chinese officials have made it clear they’ll take “necessary measures” to retaliate for Trump’s tariffs. All indications from Beijing are that China’s counter-tariffs will target goods and jobs in parts of America that voted for Trump. At the top of China’s list are agricultural products like soybeans and hogs.

Soybeans and grains are the second largest U.S. export to China. Trump carried eight of the top 10 soy-producing states, and the critical swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin are both in the top 15 soybean producers, according to USDA data. Airplanes, the top U.S. export to China, could also end up on the Chinese hit list.

“There is virtually certain to be Chinese retaliation aimed largely on U.S. agriculture,” said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments. “Most of Trump’s policies hurt his base, and this could be a real problem in places like the Midwest.”

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