For a year in which one issue dominated our lives, responses to the pandemic had remarkably little effect on voter behavior Tuesday. All the divisions in American politics that have hardened over the past generation were very much on display.
Republicans see an activist approach to containing the virus as threatening the economy. They prefer hands-off to anything that smacks to them of “socialism.”
Democrats find it hard to believe a major threat to our lives and the national well-being would get short shrift, especially after the incoherent and often dishonest approach taken by an incumbent president. A priority for public health, for them, is a no-brainer.
And so the 2020 election tracked 2016 far more closely than most thought it would — with some key exceptions.
Once again, the Democratic presidential nominee will score a clear win in the popular vote. And, as of this writing, the upper Midwestern states that Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016 this time appear to be narrowly supporting Joe Biden, which would make him president.
Whatever else that might mean, it would clearly create a major change in the atmosphere in Washington, with a 40-year political veteran replacing a businessman who’d never served in office. Tweets and daily outrage would be replaced by press conferences and interviews — welcome, as we struggle through a coronavirus winter.
In Maine, the big surprise was the weak showing by Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Sara Gideon, losing decisively to incumbent Republican Susan Collins, who now will serve the fifth term she coveted — something even her idol, Margaret Chase Smith, couldn’t achieve.
Collins wasn’t ahead in any published poll, though Gideon’s leads were usually within the margin of error. Collins may well have benefited from late-deciders who — though bothered by her support for still more tax cuts for the rich, and confirmation votes for unpopular Supreme Court nominees — didn’t like what they saw from Gideon.
A campaign where spending neared an incredible $200 million was even more relentlessly negative than the norm; it’s difficult to find a single issue of accomplishment by either candidate consistently presented to voters.
Still, the charge the Collins forces pushed relentlessly toward the end — her 7,000 consecutive roll call votes, contrasted with Gideon’s absence from the State House, as House speaker, since March — may have stuck. In other words, Collins did her job; Gideon didn’t.
Gideon’s team thought they had neutralized that charge by contending it was the Legislature’s Republicans who prevented any return to Augusta. While it’s true that the GOP, as the minority party, tried to impose absurd conditions, taking only bills they liked, it’s also true that it’s almost always the governor who calls lawmakers back, not legislative leaders.
There’s no evidence Gideon made any real effort to convince Gov. Janet Mills to issue the call, and, unlike her counterpart, Senate President Troy Jackson, seemed content to leave more than 150 bills to die, an unprecedented and discouraging end.
Gideon’s lackluster showing may have had effects down the ballot, too. While Senate Democrats strongly defended the majority they won in 2018, and may have increased it by one, House Democrats, in continuous control since 2012, almost lost theirs, despite a seemingly impregnable edge going in.
House Republicans claim to have picked 11 seats, defeating seven Democratic incumbents and losing none of their own. Democrats did win 80 seats, a working majority in the 151-seat chamber, but a far cry from their usual dominance.
The Senate and House campaigns were strikingly different. The Democratic Senate leadership team — Jackson, Majority Leader Nate Libby and Assistant Leader Eloise Vitelli — remains intact, and they successfully defended all of their 2018 gains.
A 28-year-old political wunderkind, House member Chloe Maxmin, bested Republican Senate Leader Dana Dow in Lincoln County’s District 13, while in Kennebunk, District 34, former football coach Joseph Rafferty defeated Town Manager Michael Pardue for an open Republican seat.
The only Democratic incumbent to be ousted was former Attorney General Mike Carpenter, who had twice won his old District 2 Senate seat, but lost this time to Rep. Trey Stewart, a coming force in the GOP, as Maxmin is for Democrats.
In the House, without a political heir to Gideon, Democrats failed to protect several first-term incumbents who’d won in previously Republican districts. As it frequently is, “all politics is local.”
As the national races continue and the Congressional lineup remains unclear, it’s equally hard to predict how things will be at the State House come January. The only sure thing is that the next session will bear little resemblance to the one that just ended with a whimper.
Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, reporter, opinion writer and author for 36 years, has published books about George Mitchell, and the Maine Democratic Party. He welcomes comment at: drooks@tds.net
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this column contained the wrong age for Chloe Maxmin. It has been fixed.
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