Picture an NFL offense.

Do you see a playbook with X’s and O’s? Or 11 players aligned on a field, the proverbial Jimmy’s and Joe’s? How would you describe a playbook to someone new to football?

Start here: It’s an organism.

An offense grows over time. It has tendencies, strengths and weaknesses and operates in a competitive ecosystem. Every offense develops by trying and failing, but the best adapt.

Recognizing this, the Patriots have annually fielded one of the most adaptable offenses in the NFL. Minor alterations across scheme and personnel occur every year, then every week once the season starts. But this year, following minimal roster turnover, a system sea change – at least by Foxborough standards – is coming.

Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne described the offense as “new” this spring. Even Bill Belichick admitted it’s been “streamlined.” Like the surrounding conversation, the language inside the Patriots offense has changed, too, as lead assistants Joe Judge and Matt Patricia install fresh terminology.

But as Judge and Patricia begin to take charge on the practice field, two other coaches who have moved on to college jobs may have  left their own imprints on the offense: Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch. O’Brien and Fisch both visited Foxborough this offseason, former Patriots assistants and experts in areas that could allow a new, streamlined offense to flourish. More on them later.

Of course, theorizing major system changes based on a couple quotes and overnight stays is a reach. But it can be argued New England’s offense buckled under the weight of its own complexity in recent years. The Patriots got too smart and too cute for their own good.

The inability to assimilate young receivers for a decade-plus and the decision to now simplify a playbook Mac Jones just mastered would suggest the coaching staff agrees. So the Patriots are simplifying. They’re adapting. Not to survive, but thrive again as they once did.

So how will the new offense function with Jones at its center and Patricia and Judge on the sideline?

WHAT WE KNOW

Let’s start on the ground. During OTAs and minicamp, the Patriots drilled outside zone runs like they were going out of style, a strong indication that play will serve as the new foundation of the rushing attack.

Pivoting to a predominantly zone running game would fit with a streamlined emphasis. Zone schemes are not easier to execute at a high level than gap schemes – the other family of rushing plays – but they can be far simpler.

Most iterations of outside zone involve the offensive linemen taking an initial lateral step in unison and following basic blocking rules that adapt to every defensive front imaginable. Running backs then choose a lane as the play develops, as opposed to hitting a specified hole as required in man-blocked or gap runs. That built-in flexibility allows offenses running outside zone to hit opponents up the middle, off-tackle or on the edge on any given play, depending on how the defensive front reacts.

From a personnel standpoint, the scheme fits. Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown ranked as two of the 25 best zone-blocking offensive tackles last season, per Pro Football Focus. Wynn checked in at No. 11, a year after ranking 31st. Brown has graded higher on zone runs than gap-scheme runs for two straight seasons.

Not to mention, first-round rookie Cole Strange tested as one of the most athletic offensive guards ever to swing through the NFL combine, a perfect fit for zone running. Adopting a zone running game could also enable the Patriots to replace a chapter of their playbook that appeared lost in mid-March.

ROSTER CHANGES

Soon after fullback Jakob Johnson left for Las Vegas in free agency, he disclosed the Patriots had eliminated his position.

The team’s official stance on the matter is they cross-train their tight ends, so theoretically, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith or Devin Asiasi could play fullback and the offense would run just the same. And that’s true. But the reality is the tight end who best profiles as a fullback, 2020 third-rounder Dalton Keene, has essentially been in witness protection for his entire career due to various injuries and is a long shot to make the roster.

Where does that leave the Patriots? Most likely revising a significant chapter of their playbook, because two-back packages have been elemental to this offense for virtually the entire Belichick era. The Patriots annually run more snaps with a fullback than most of the league, ranking second, first, fifth and second in 21 personnel usage (plays with two backs and one tight end) over the past four seasons. During that stretch, they ran 25.5% of their offensive snaps from 21 personnel; plays where the fullback lead-blocked or blocked backside or pass-protected or flew into the flat to catch passes.

So how do the Patriots replace a whole position and more than a quarter of their offense? Do they call more plays through 11 personnel (three receivers, one back and one tight end) or 12 personnel (two receivers, one back and two tight ends)?

What could come next? Likely both.

The Patriots can employ the same age-old concepts they executed with a traditional fullback through a tight end, either an additional one in 12 personnel or the lone tight end in 11 personnel (their most efficient grouping). Most of these plays are most easily adapted with a zone-running game as the base.

BACK TO FISCH

Fisch is a longtime proponent of zone running, his preferred rushing scheme when he was the offensive coordinator in Jacksonville and at the University of Miami. Later, Fisch spent two years with the Rams under Sean McVay, a disciple of the famed Shanahan offense that springs from a zone running game. During his only season in New England, 2020, the Patriots called different zone schemes from traditional outside zone, lead zone (with a lead-blocking fullback) and split zone, where a tight end runs opposite the action to block a defender backside.

The simplest example of how the Patriots can adapt their two-back schemes is split zone, wherein the tight end starts at one end of the line, then sprints behind the offensive line to block the backside edge defender. Or he can step off the line and motion into a “wham” block, wherein a defensive tackle is purposefully left unblocked and then creamed from the side by an incoming fullback or tight end, allowing O-linemen to jump up field. Johnson did this often. Or the tight end can motion across the line or into the backfield and serve as a lead blocker on occasion, just as a fullback would.

As far as the passing game, there’s scant evidence the Patriots tinkered with their base concepts this offseason besides relabeling them, but installing a few more run-pass options would be wise. Implementing RPOs is something McDaniels was reluctant to do for his entire tenure, even as they became popular across the NFL five years ago. But now he’s gone, and O’Brien is a newly made specialist in how to install and coach RPOs as Alabama’s offensive coordinator.

Last season with O’Brien calling plays, the Crimson Tide ran RPOs on 34.6% of their snaps last season, per PFF. The year before, RPOs accounted for more than 19% of Mac Jones’ snaps at Alabama. Jones thrived.

All of his strengths – his quick trigger, accuracy within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and rapid processing – were accentuated by the scheme. And they’re plenty easy to install. Take a basic run play, like outside zone, and pair it with a simple route concept. Teach the quarterback to make a simple read mid-play and decide where the ball should go.

Simplify, simplify, simplify.

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