David Vail is professor of economics emeritus and former director of environmental studies at Bowdoin College.

Maine’s decades-long population exodus has reversed. Since the COVID pandemic, Maine has gained nearly 80,000 new residents through in-migration. The state’s report “Why People Move to Maine” views this as a clear benefit: “Attracting population and workforce talent to Maine is a core goal of the state’s 10-year economic development strategy to mitigate the effects of an aging population and projected workforce deficit.”

Jesse Keenan’s provocative 2025 book, “North: The Future of Post-Climate America,” pinpoints the climate crisis as a powerful migration driver. In fact, “boomerang migration” from the Sun Belt is already underway. Adverse climate trends punctuated by disastrous droughts, floods, hurricanes, wildfires and heat domes have begun to push “climigrants” north to cooler, less disaster-prone places — like Maine.

Maine is becoming a “climate haven.” According to “Why People Move to Maine,” half of
recent arrivals say that climate influenced their relocation decisions and almost one-quarter list climate as an important push-pull influence. Florida and California are among the top five sending states and Sun Belt states together account for 24% of Maine’s recent arrivals.

If Keenan’s forecast is on the mark, Maine’s current trickle of climigrants will become a
stream, if not a flood. “Climate refugees” make complex relocation decisions, and
Maine offers attractive connections, amenities and opportunities beyond its cooler
summers and lower disaster risks.

For example, nearly half of recent arrivals have family here, two-thirds highlight outdoor recreation opportunities and more than half take advantage of broadband connectivity to work remotely. On the other hand, Maine is not a great match for climigrants deterred by our long winters, limited childcare, spotty rural health access, many low-performing schools and housing shortage.

What climigration will mean for Maine’s economy, communities, culture and demography depends largely on who chooses to settle here.

Keenan stresses that most long-distance climigrants are “electively mobile households [that are] generally wealthier and have labor skills that allow for a smooth transition across greater spans of geography.” He labels this “climate gentrification.”

Maine is indeed experiencing gentrification: recent arrivals’ median household income is
over $100,000, vs. roughly $75,000 for resident Mainers; and 74% have at least a bachelor’s degree vs. 37% for residents.

Low-income, asset-poor and less skilled Sun Belt groups are generally stuck in place, or able to move just short distances to escape climate vulnerability. Parenthetically, many of Maine’s asylum seekers from the global south have undoubtedly also been pushed by environmental stresses.

Comprehensive data for Maine’s climigrants are lacking, but attributes of the overall in-
migrant pool can be used as a loose proxy for climigrants. This is justified by Maine’s
close fit with Keenan’s gentrification story.

As Maine’s development plan asserts, climigration brings economic and community
benefits. Most in-migrants pursue professions and other highly skilled occupations, and
14% have started new businesses or brought existing business to Maine. More than 60% volunteer for nonprofit organizations and a similar proportion contribute financially to Maine organizations. One-third participate on school boards, town committees and similar civic institutions.

More broadly, the roughly one-third who settle in sparsely populated regions contribute to the critical mass of residents needed to sustain schools, medical facilities, commercial activity and property tax revenues.

Other migrant characteristics are more problematic, however.

For example, most migrants choose larger towns and cities, where housing scarcity, not critical mass, is a core problem. Three-fourths of in-migrants own their homes, squeezing availability and driving up prices for others. In amenity-rich rural destinations, like the Moosehead Lake region, a newcomer “land grab” accelerates real estate inflation, limits traditional recreational access and contributes to “culture clash.”

Finally, considering Maine’s goal of a younger, more diverse population, it is concerning
that 35% of recent in-migrants are retirees, just one-sixth have children and 92% are white.

Framing a strategy to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of climigration is a
task for another essay. Here, I simply note that one focus of the state’s climate action
plan, Maine Won’t Wait, is the Resilience Office and its 243 local Community Resilience
Partnerships.

Their current purpose is to prepare for adverse climate impacts. As climigration accelerates, the scope of state resilience initiatives should expand to help communities take maximum advantage of climate refugees heading north.