Once again thick fog spread over much of the region this morning.

This time of the year, the sun’s angle is much lower and we tend to have a harder time “burning off” the fog. That’s in quote mark because the sun really doesn’t burn away the fog, it actually heats the ground to create a big enough spread between the temperature and dew point to lower the relative humidity, lifting or dissipating the fog. The point is, the fog may be quite reluctant to disappear along the immediate coast today and the islands could stay rather gloomy all day.

Dense fog is a problem through mid-morning, but, but some fog can linger all day at the coast. Dave Epstein

There may be some drizzle, especially this morning, but really no showers. The next chance for rain doesn’t come until Tuesday or Tuesday night into Wednesday when Jose passes closest to southern Maine. By then Jose won’t be anything more than a weakening tropical storm.

Hurricane Jose is attracting a lot of buzz in the Northeast, and the storm’s projected track takes it meteorologically close to New England  Wednesday. As with any storm, there are still unknowns at this point. Forecasters aren’t yet sure of the storm’s exact track, or how it will move later this week and into the weekend. No matter how the track evolves, you can expect some rough surf and strong rip currents through at least Wednesday.


Jose shouldn’t be a big deal for us here in Maine. Seas of 5 to 6 feet offshore with some breezy conditions is as bad as it gets for us. If the storm came a bit closer  we could see more rain, but we could use some rain, so that’s more of an inconvenience, not a flooding issue.

If the storm tracks a bit further east we could miss a lot of the rainfall. I still believe we will see some rain, but amounts could be very low with a track further east and south.

The latest track for the National Hurricane Center as of 5 a.m. Monday. NHC

Clouds from Jose will thicken Monday night, and some showers will show up over coastal southern Maine Tuesday afternoon or evening, then move north and west. The rain stays in the forecast through Wednesday. It won’t rain all the time, but showers and even downpours are possible at least into early Wednesday. Whether we clear out or still have showers later this week depends on the track of the storm.

The chance is very small , under 20 percent, winds ever reach tropical storm force in Maine. NHC

New England does get hurricanes, but Jose isn’t going to be that type of storm. Think of this as a being brushed by wet nor’easter: It might be long lasting, but we won’t know for a few days. The rough seas are definitely the most dangerous aspect of this storm so be extra cautious on or near the ocean.


Where Jose goes determines the weather, and the track becomes very questionable about three days out. Some of the models take the storm farther east after its closest pass to New England on Wednesday. This would mean a better second half of the week with increasingly sunny skies.

Other models slow down the storm and loop it around south of New England. This would keep clouds, showers and even breezy conditions in the forecast through Friday. I’d give these longer-lasting storm impacts about a 30 percent chance of happening.

Jose may do a loop south of New England later this week. Weathernerds.org

There are two other tropical systems in the Atlantic, too. Maria is going to become a major hurricane in the next few days and will likely impact many of the same areas in the Caribbean that Irma hit.  

Lee fell apart overnight and is no longer a named storm.

Follow Dave Epstein on Twitter: @growingwisdom.


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